I don't know one way or the other but I wouldn't be as sure as you are. Like others have said here, its probably a combination of many things, including a bit o

I don't know one way or the other but I wouldn't be as sure as you are. Like others have said here, its probably a combination of many things, including a bit of a panic, but its an interesting analysis for sure. Yes, there was a bit of a 'bank run' effect. But it wasn't as huge as one might think. I saw some numbers for Germany from Spiegel.de and sales of toilet paper went up by 'only' ~100% (compared to 700% for hand sanitizer) [1]. Compared to the out-of-need increase of ~40% that is cited in the article here, that's not as huge a difference as I had assumed. If you assume that rational people are forward looking and are slightly stocking up with out panicking. Once there was an obvious shortage, people might have panicked a bit. But not for no reason. Here in Switzerland, the sewer system did get clogged up by toilette paper alternatives like wet wipes and cotton [2]. So it seems, that indeed some people ran out of toilet paper. Of course they should have used water instead. But it shows, that our just-in-time, high efficiency economy is very fragile, even without mass irrationality and panic. [1] I couldn't find today's source from a quick google search. But another article cites a 200% increase https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/corona-krise-nachfrage-nach-desinfektionsmittel-verachtfacht-sich-a-7befcedb-a1ee-4342-8bd7-bc5f8c8e59ec https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/corona-krise-nachfrage-nac... , I assume the 100% was for the whole of March [2] https://www.20min.ch/schweiz/news/story/Feuchttuecher-bedrohen-die-Abwassersysteme-23998381 https://www.20min.ch/schweiz/news/story/Feuchttuecher-bedroh...