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"Epidemiology, as a field, already exists. Any prediction from a physicist tinkering with equations pulled from Wikipedia is not going to be a better prediction
by thedudeabides5 7y ago
"Epidemiology, as a field, already exists. Any prediction from a physicist tinkering with equations pulled from Wikipedia is not going to be a better prediction than that of professional public health experts whose models are far more sophisticated and already validated."
Eh, I'm pretty sure the fancy epidemiologists totally failed the world.
Like, wasn't their job to be like 'HOLY COW GUYS R0 of 3!" back in...February.
This is to epi and medicine what the GFC of 2008 was for finance/economics. The professionals have failed. Amateurs are now introducing new ideas. In the end, we'll find balance between the two, with time and reflection.
- rumanator 7y ago> Like, wasn't their job to be like 'HOLY COW GUYS R0 of 3!" back in...February. With the Chinese regime and WHO strigently denying that the virus was ever transmissible between humans and reassuring that all known cases were just flukes, it's hard to pull the "science has failed us" when all data and observations that science depends on to make judgements has been extensively falsified, covered up, and misreported.
- thedudeabides5 7y agoI mean sure, that's probably exactly what all the bankers are going to say when the exact same thing happens with the economy vs a virus.
- detaro 7y agoIn early February, the first large events were being cancelled or their cancellation considered, the first large companies shut down employee travel, ... it wasn't some unknown thing nobody warned about back then. I suspect the risk of it spreading undetected being underestimated was a big problem though, and it was assumed that it traveling could be detected and stopped.