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The stock market isn't holding up, it's down 26% since this started. The thing to remember is that the stock market is predictive; it fell when investors foresa
by jimrandomh 7y ago
The stock market isn't holding up, it's down 26% since this started. The thing to remember is that the stock market is predictive; it fell when investors foresaw the job losses, before they actually happened.
- srverma 7y agoInteresting train of thought. Could this possibly indicate that investors see light at the end of the tunnel? Dow & S&P are up 1% right now.
- palebluedot 7y agoThat would seem to be the case, but keep in mind that doesn't mean they are right (but I hope they are). We are in uncharted waters here, so the models and playbooks of investors may be even less accurate than normal.
- nostromo 7y agoIn 2008 gdp declined by ~2% and the stock market fell 50%. The downright dreadful forecasts coming in about 2020 GDP double digit declines seem to me to warrant a larger decline in equities. I think a lot of folks think this will be a sharp V recovery, but I'm not so sure. I'm already seeing knock-on effects in the real world. People in tech being laid off; (formerly) rich folks cutting way back on planned spending; entire projects canceled, etc.
- almost_usual 7y agoI wouldn’t be surprised of on again off again quarantines over the next year. This is our new reality until a vaccine is manufactured and distributed.
- MuffinFlavored 7y agohttps://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united-states-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth... GDP growth declined -0.1% in '08 and -2.5% in '09
- wool_gather 7y ago> People in tech being laid off This does seem to be accelerating, although recall that this year opened with a fair few headline-grabbing mass layoffs. It's hard to say that more weren't already coming, with the timetable just moved up.