2 ms·
1) This is not something to be predicted in absolute fashion, because it is dependent on government action. I think the best guess can be on the immediate trend
by generalpass 7y ago
1) This is not something to be predicted in absolute fashion, because it is dependent on government action. I think the best guess can be on the immediate trend, which indicates deep depression and inflation graduating to hyperinflation, but it is important to revisit should government actions change. The scale will be record-breaking in the time frame of all civilizations that have ever existed.
2) It will be far worse.
3) Initially, it will be massive job losses, massive spending, and massive regulations. There will be an apparent bump whenever the lockdowns are relaxed. The bump will likely be smaller than expected, but any bump may initiate a strong market response. Since this is an election year, there will be no stop to the handing out of money to nearly every sector of the economy. This will be followed by increases in CPI, which will further accelerate.
4) Institutional investors and then governments around the world will begin to sell their USD reserves as CPI rate of increase goes up. When they see that there is no counter-response to selling of USD reserves, the rate of liquidation will increase, yet further increasing the rate of CPI increase, though this may be a few years out. The onset of hyperinflation in Wiemar Republic Germany was preceded by a few years of high inflation, but the actual hyper-inflationary period was less than one year and set in within a month or two. This isn't to suggest that conditions in the U.S. are identical or even similar to conditions in Germany, but to demonstrate that hyperinflation onset is far more rapid than most realize.
As a side note, many people are not aware of the concept of Cantillon effects (including most of the popular Austrians and monetarists), which economists use to describe how money flows through an economy. In effect, newly created money does not instantly flow throughout the economy, and in many cases may only flow in very narrow sectors. For example, the bulk of money created over the last decade remained in non-consumer sectors and thus minimally impacted CPI. Further, even within something such as CPI, things may fall precipitously in price, such as airline tickets and gasoline, while other things experience dramatic increases, such as eggs and bread.
I observe there to be a handwavey treatment of anyone discussing inflation. I find across popular personalities, social media, and various forum comments that inflation is some relic of the past, but the only evidence provided is the lack of CPI increase in recent years, which cannot be held up as relevant given the current government activity is very different as it includes creation of money likely to flow directly into the consumer sectors while there is a forced reduction in production (i.e., yet more dollars chasing yet fewer products). Also, I'm not that great on the technical explanations, but I know that the way the QE was performed it created a very high demand for dollars, sending the USD very high. But the velocity of M2 was also very high, and that is largely what has been fueling the apparent boom, but I admit I'm a poor source for these more technical aspects.
- generalpass 7y agoI hope I am wrong.