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Don't forget that Italy and France aren't counting people who die of COVID-19 at home or in nursing facilities. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/italys-cor

• irq11 7y ago
  They also aren’t counting the huge number of mild or asymptomatic infections, which is orders of magnitude larger. There’s error in the numerator of the equation, but it’s swamped by the error in the denominator.
  • Majromax 7y ago
    Remember, it's a ratio. What matters isn't the raw number of missed cases, it's the ratio of missed-to-detected cases versus uncounted-to-counted deaths. If Italy has missed half of its deaths but also half of its total cases, the fatality ratio would remain the same. To bring its CFR down to the level of South Korea, you'd have to make the implausible assumption that Italy has caught nearly all of its deaths but missed more than 85% of its total cases.
    • irq11 7y ago
      Yes, I know it’s a ratio. That’s why I used the term “numerator” and “denominator”. It’s not at all implausible that Italy has missed the vast majority of it’s cases, because they’re barely testing, and they’re not testing minor cases. It’s essentially guaranteed that they’re missing a huge number of cases. A reasonable estimate is that they’re missing 10 cases for every one they actually detect. The error in the denominator is much larger than the error in the numerator.