4 ms·

Very true. There's a second order reduction in deaths, too. The huge reduction in vehicle traffic leads to far fewer car accidents [0]. The temporary closure of

Very true. There's a second order reduction in deaths, too. The huge reduction in vehicle traffic leads to far fewer car accidents [0]. The temporary closure of polluting industries improves air quality. Working out the overall impact of this thing will be quite a challenge indeed. [0] A pretty extreme example is here in Vietnam where I'm "sheltering in place" -- normally an average of two people a day die in traffic accidents in Saigon alone. Traffic has been reduced so much (although there isn't a strict lockdown) that it's apparently down to one person in two weeks. Meanwhile, Covid-19 hasn't directly killed anyone in the whole country (according to official figures).

bb2018 7y ago
This will obviously be studied for years but I imagine plotting taking "total deaths in region X for time period Y - total deaths in region X given comparable previous time period Y" will give a pretty good estimate of the complete effect of Covid. It won't be able to pinpoint individual cases but it seems like a very simple and unbiased way of getting the complete delta in deaths due to Covid.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  I mentioned this in another thread but check out http://euromomo.eu/ http://euromomo.eu/ - all-cause mortality vs. baseline for every European country, overall and by age group, going back a decade. There's a time lag because of reporting delay so it will be a few weeks before the current situation in Italy/Spain is well reflected there. It does only have country-level data, so some amount of excess mortality in one sub-country region (e.g. Lombardy) can get diluted by the rest of the country, although Lombardy is 1/6 of the population of Italy so significant excess should show up.
  - yread 7y ago
    It's interesting how even the delay adjusted z-score in countries doesn't work very well. Compare the graph of Netherlands to the graph that RIVM presented to the government yesterday (page 6): https://www.tweedekamer.nl/downloads/document?id=fb38642a-88e7-4da6-a681-db2739496546&title=PowerPoint%20presentatie%20update%20coronavirus%20.pdf https://www.tweedekamer.nl/downloads/document?id=fb38642a-88...
kitotik 7y ago
I don’t have any hard data, but LA mayor Garcetti mentioned in one of his briefings this week that while the total number of accidents has gone down, the number of ‘severe’ accidents has increased, due to speeding, ignoring traffic signals/stop signa, and a general increase in pedestrian/bicycle traffic
asjw 7y ago
> The temporary closure of polluting industries improves air quality That is not true and it doesn't reduce anything It's not a few days that change things Besides, in Lombardy the real pollution problem is due the lack of strong winds and the actual low precipitations
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  The lack of strong wind and low precipitation (and the surrounding mountains and ocean) cause air pollution to persist for longer, but the air pollution still has to come from somewhere.
  - chinesempire 7y ago
    The problem with the lack of winds is that the pollution precipitate on the ground and ends up polluting groundwaters Rain can sometimes dilute them and winds disperse them Another problem with the perception of reduced pollution is that people think that cars running are the major source of air pollution, while home warming is, so the reduction is also due to the warm season coming. Cars running major effect is picking up fine dust with their tyres and disperse them into the air Which increases air pollution but also makes it less persistent When on the ground it becomes more dangerous in the long term

bb2018 7y ago

This will obviously be studied for years but I imagine plotting taking "total deaths in region X for time period Y - total deaths in region X given comparable previous time period Y" will give a pretty good estimate of the complete effect of Covid. It won't be able to pinpoint individual cases but it seems like a very simple and unbiased way of getting the complete delta in deaths due to Covid.

_-___________-_ 7y ago
I mentioned this in another thread but check out http://euromomo.eu/ http://euromomo.eu/ - all-cause mortality vs. baseline for every European country, overall and by age group, going back a decade. There's a time lag because of reporting delay so it will be a few weeks before the current situation in Italy/Spain is well reflected there. It does only have country-level data, so some amount of excess mortality in one sub-country region (e.g. Lombardy) can get diluted by the rest of the country, although Lombardy is 1/6 of the population of Italy so significant excess should show up.
- yread 7y ago
  It's interesting how even the delay adjusted z-score in countries doesn't work very well. Compare the graph of Netherlands to the graph that RIVM presented to the government yesterday (page 6): https://www.tweedekamer.nl/downloads/document?id=fb38642a-88e7-4da6-a681-db2739496546&title=PowerPoint%20presentatie%20update%20coronavirus%20.pdf https://www.tweedekamer.nl/downloads/document?id=fb38642a-88...

kitotik 7y ago

I don’t have any hard data, but LA mayor Garcetti mentioned in one of his briefings this week that while the total number of accidents has gone down, the number of ‘severe’ accidents has increased, due to speeding, ignoring traffic signals/stop signa, and a general increase in pedestrian/bicycle traffic

asjw 7y ago

> The temporary closure of polluting industries improves air quality That is not true and it doesn't reduce anything It's not a few days that change things Besides, in Lombardy the real pollution problem is due the lack of strong winds and the actual low precipitations

_-___________-_ 7y ago
The lack of strong wind and low precipitation (and the surrounding mountains and ocean) cause air pollution to persist for longer, but the air pollution still has to come from somewhere.
- chinesempire 7y ago
  The problem with the lack of winds is that the pollution precipitate on the ground and ends up polluting groundwaters Rain can sometimes dilute them and winds disperse them Another problem with the perception of reduced pollution is that people think that cars running are the major source of air pollution, while home warming is, so the reduction is also due to the warm season coming. Cars running major effect is picking up fine dust with their tyres and disperse them into the air Which increases air pollution but also makes it less persistent When on the ground it becomes more dangerous in the long term