3 ms·
Nice but sadly also May (what did Newton do in his second month?) The IHME models they chose to use are too optimistic, too many people aren't wise enough to u
by ck2 7y ago
Nice but sadly also May (what did Newton do in his second month?)
The IHME models they chose to use are too optimistic, too many people aren't wise enough to understand or care how this works and won't be told what to do, there are going to be rather stubborn congregations for Easter.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Ventilators run out way before ICU beds.
- TechBro8615 7y agoThanks for this site, I haven't seen it before. This predicts a peak usage of 32k ventilators, but I don't see any data for how many ventilators we already have?
- tathougies 7y agoIn 2010, there were about 62k ventilators in American hospitals, more than any other developed nation at the time: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215 If you take into account non-'full time' ventilators (not sure what these are but apparently they exist), the US has 99k.
- ck2 7y agoIt's not the count but the distribution. NY State only managed to come up with 6500, feds finally gave them 4400 more but the federal "stockpile" turned out to be a lie. There is also a good chance given how complex the machines are that many a decade old from 2010 are no longer functional? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/politics/coronavirus-ventilators.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/politics/coronavirus-v...
- tathougies 7y agoNY state has 8 million people. The United states has about 320 million. Thus, assuming an equal distribution, I would expect NY to have about 1/40 the number as the entire country. 62000 / 40 = 1550, so actually New York has a lot more than one would expect. I would expect there to be more ventilators today than 2010 (but I could be wrong).