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Interestingly, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation [1] out of UW is still predicting Florida will not run out of hospital beds, unlike many other st

by pbh101 7y ago

Interestingly, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation [1] out of UW is still predicting Florida will not run out of hospital beds, unlike many other states. I don't know what to do with this data, but I was surprised given the concern in the media for the state due to the older population and lack of stay-at-home order until now. [1] https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

BobbyJo 7y ago
Florida has tons of hospital capacity.
- r00fus 7y ago
  I'd be surprised if linear growth models can magically support exponential growth usage without a lot of suffering.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  Florida has 5k ICU beds and 5 million Floridians over 65. They do not have enough hospital capacity for this event. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241464406.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article24146440...
DanBC 7y ago
Covid-19 kills some people quite quickly, and it hospitalises some people for a long time. Florida has more of the first group and fewer of the second group.
nv-vn 7y ago
The data is definitely not update, in my state it looks like the data being shown is a few weeks old and the stay at home order isn't displayed either.
lakis 7y ago
And now (a day later) the projection is that Florida will be short by 917 ICU beds. And this will keep changing. As they say in http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates "Our model’s increase in nationwide deaths since the March 31 release is primarily driven by increasing death tolls in states that previously had very few COVID-19 deaths. States with more COVID-19 deaths, such as New York and Washington, show far less fluctuation across daily updates." Basically, in states with little testing and if they are in the start of the cycle, the data is very unreliable. See their update for Alabama. In a single day, with newer data, the death projection went up by 540% "Notably, fitting on new data released on March 31, the cumulative COVID-19 death estimates for Alabama increased to 7,334 (1,130 to 17,040), an estimate that is 6,161 deaths higher than previous estimates."
- cmurf 7y ago
  Florida governor: We'll take state residents only from Zaandam cruise ship https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/holland-america-zaandam-cruise-ship-florida/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/holland-america-zaandam-cr... I think this is disgusting and humiliating.

by pbh101 7y ago

BobbyJo 7y ago

Florida has tons of hospital capacity.

r00fus 7y ago
I'd be surprised if linear growth models can magically support exponential growth usage without a lot of suffering.
toomuchtodo 7y ago
Florida has 5k ICU beds and 5 million Floridians over 65. They do not have enough hospital capacity for this event. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241464406.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article24146440...

DanBC 7y ago

Covid-19 kills some people quite quickly, and it hospitalises some people for a long time. Florida has more of the first group and fewer of the second group.

nv-vn 7y ago

The data is definitely not update, in my state it looks like the data being shown is a few weeks old and the stay at home order isn't displayed either.

lakis 7y ago

And now (a day later) the projection is that Florida will be short by 917 ICU beds. And this will keep changing. As they say in http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates "Our model’s increase in nationwide deaths since the March 31 release is primarily driven by increasing death tolls in states that previously had very few COVID-19 deaths. States with more COVID-19 deaths, such as New York and Washington, show far less fluctuation across daily updates." Basically, in states with little testing and if they are in the start of the cycle, the data is very unreliable. See their update for Alabama. In a single day, with newer data, the death projection went up by 540% "Notably, fitting on new data released on March 31, the cumulative COVID-19 death estimates for Alabama increased to 7,334 (1,130 to 17,040), an estimate that is 6,161 deaths higher than previous estimates."

cmurf 7y ago
Florida governor: We'll take state residents only from Zaandam cruise ship https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/holland-america-zaandam-cruise-ship-florida/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/holland-america-zaandam-cr... I think this is disgusting and humiliating.