That's clearly not the strategy any more. I mean, I was just as wrong as I was saying the same thing a week ago. But the numbers don't add up. You can't have 1

That's clearly not the strategy any more. I mean, I was just as wrong as I was saying the same thing a week ago. But the numbers don't add up. You can't have 100,000-200,000 deaths in a country of 327 million people if it infects 80% and has a mortality rate of 1-2% if you have medical intervention (which is their best guess). Without intervention I assume it kills the up to 20% (probably more like 10% as we're still not clear on asymptomatic infections) who require hospitalisation. For the US that's 2.6-5.2 million dead to reach herd immunity with a shallow peak, or something like 25-50 million if its not flattened and the health service get overwhelmed. By saying only 100,000-200,000 will die, the strategy must ultimately be lockdown to stop spread, then release the lockdown and contain the infections using test, trace, quarantine like S.Korea, China and Japan. Or lockdown until a vaccine is ready in 18 months, which I can't see happening.