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"Let him who is without sin cast the first stone." It's a little too convenient that the US blew so many weeks of lead time in getting mass testing running. We

"Let him who is without sin cast the first stone." It's a little too convenient that the US blew so many weeks of lead time in getting mass testing running. We don't need to suppress information about our virus outbreak when we simply don't have data about it. We literally would've had a better response if the CDC didn't exist at all and individual states weren't impeded from running their own tests. The Seattle Flu Study was explicitly forbidden from testing for coronavirus, and their refusal to obey that order on ethical grounds was probably the reason that they're not suffering New York's fate right now. Not to absolve China here, but it's a classic sin of nations to hide epidemics (see "Spanish Flu") and they probably aren't even the most egregious sinners today.

notechback 7y ago
How come European Union countries, South Korea and Taiwan weren't hiding the issue then? They were unaware of the scale for a while, but even Italy did not try for a minute to hide it. Hiding or denying an epidemic is really something that only dictatorships do.
- mullingitover 7y ago
  I think the degree to which countries hide their numbers matches the degree to which they're authoritarian (or simply corrupt). North Korea sets the bar, with "zero" cases. Russia has suspiciously low numbers. Japan, surprisingly, is not doing well in this area. I think Japan early on was hell-bent on having their olympics happen regardless of the consequences, and their people are going to suffer for it.
  - type0 7y ago
    > Russia has suspiciously low numbers. The virus simply freezes and won't infect in Russia /s
    - blaser-waffle 7y ago
      I'm in Canada and we have surprisngly few cases where we are, relative to the population size (Edmonton). We've had snow and a cold snap, which is definitely keeping people inside. I don't doubt that Russia is downplaying their cases, but I can absolutely believe that the cold is making people self-isolate, and thus keep infection down.
- gentleman11 7y ago
  There is some evidence that Italy has had 4x more deaths than they have reported https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22723647 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22723647
  - NicoJuicy 7y ago
    Not everyone is dying from Corona. There are others ways to die :)
- qqssccfftt 7y ago
  Kind of answering your own question there!
- thewileyone 7y ago
  They already knew what it was. When the outbreak started, no one knew what a coronavirus was or how to treat it. By the time, other countries started getting hit, everyone knew what it was and how to test for it.
- adultSwim 7y ago
  Headline: Italy’s Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179 https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-i...
hodgesrm 7y ago
> We literally would've had a better response if the CDC didn't exist at all and individual states weren't impeded from running their own tests. That's a very strong assertion that needs proof. Testing is important, but so are many other things like access to hospital beds, ventilators, face masks, etc. Plus you are assuming that states would have been uniformly aggressive in testing and countermeasures, which is manifestly not the case. (See Louisiana, Florida, and NYC for examples.)
- mullingitover 7y ago
  > That's a very strong assertion that needs proof. The proof is self-evident. There are a plethora of commercial labs that were not allowed to do testing, and the CDC's one blessed test was a failure. Had they not been the sole blessed entity allowed to do testing, states could've run things better on their own. Better testing could've contained it long enough to allow us to prepare for the mitigation phase we're thrown into, unprepared again. As for the states, not every state would've done well, but it's practically impossible for it to be handled worse than the way it was. The US response has been a disaster from the top down.
  - hodgesrm 7y ago
    I'm not excusing the poor execution on the part of the US government--it's been awful. But it seems to me that the core problem has been leadership not taking the advice of scientists rather than whether the CDC exists or not. If you are going to run 'what if' scenarios it's worth asking what if somebody like Mario Cuomo had been in the White House in early January? (Or any of several other US governors for that matter.)
    - mullingitover 7y ago
      > If you are going to run 'what if' scenarios it's worth asking what if somebody like Mario Cuomo had been in the White House in early January? (Or any of several other US governors for that matter.) I have been thinking all along that even someone who has been dead for five years would be a suitable replacement for current leadership. Seriously though, yes, Andrew Cuomo is a walking demonstration of what competent leadership looks like. I wish we had that at the federal level.
tomohawk 7y ago
on 17th of January: > The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission’s daily update declares, “A total of 763 close contacts have been tracked, 665 medical observations have been lifted, and 98 people are still receiving medical observations. Among the close contacts, no related cases were found.” So, the CCP (China Commmunist Party) is still lying about it on the 17th of January. This is weeks after Chinese doctors in the hospital are well aware of what's going on, and had tried to get word out. However, this is what happened to them: > The Wuhan Public Security Bureau issued summons to Dr. Li Wenliang, accusing him of “spreading rumors.” Two days later, at a police station, Dr. Li signed a statement acknowledging his “misdemeanor” and promising not to commit further “unlawful acts.” Seven other people are arrested on similar charges and their fate is unknown. This head fake by the CCP, and the collaboration of the WHO, threw off the CDC and many others. Yes, the CDC screwed up and should have been more skeptical of the CCP and should have had a better game plan, but that is in a whole different category than the actions of the CCP.

notechback 7y ago

How come European Union countries, South Korea and Taiwan weren't hiding the issue then? They were unaware of the scale for a while, but even Italy did not try for a minute to hide it. Hiding or denying an epidemic is really something that only dictatorships do.

mullingitover 7y ago
I think the degree to which countries hide their numbers matches the degree to which they're authoritarian (or simply corrupt). North Korea sets the bar, with "zero" cases. Russia has suspiciously low numbers. Japan, surprisingly, is not doing well in this area. I think Japan early on was hell-bent on having their olympics happen regardless of the consequences, and their people are going to suffer for it.
- type0 7y ago
  > Russia has suspiciously low numbers. The virus simply freezes and won't infect in Russia /s
  - blaser-waffle 7y ago
    I'm in Canada and we have surprisngly few cases where we are, relative to the population size (Edmonton). We've had snow and a cold snap, which is definitely keeping people inside. I don't doubt that Russia is downplaying their cases, but I can absolutely believe that the cold is making people self-isolate, and thus keep infection down.
gentleman11 7y ago
There is some evidence that Italy has had 4x more deaths than they have reported https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22723647 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22723647
- NicoJuicy 7y ago
  Not everyone is dying from Corona. There are others ways to die :)
qqssccfftt 7y ago
Kind of answering your own question there!
thewileyone 7y ago
They already knew what it was. When the outbreak started, no one knew what a coronavirus was or how to treat it. By the time, other countries started getting hit, everyone knew what it was and how to test for it.
adultSwim 7y ago
Headline: Italy’s Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179 https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-i...

hodgesrm 7y ago

> We literally would've had a better response if the CDC didn't exist at all and individual states weren't impeded from running their own tests. That's a very strong assertion that needs proof. Testing is important, but so are many other things like access to hospital beds, ventilators, face masks, etc. Plus you are assuming that states would have been uniformly aggressive in testing and countermeasures, which is manifestly not the case. (See Louisiana, Florida, and NYC for examples.)

mullingitover 7y ago
> That's a very strong assertion that needs proof. The proof is self-evident. There are a plethora of commercial labs that were not allowed to do testing, and the CDC's one blessed test was a failure. Had they not been the sole blessed entity allowed to do testing, states could've run things better on their own. Better testing could've contained it long enough to allow us to prepare for the mitigation phase we're thrown into, unprepared again. As for the states, not every state would've done well, but it's practically impossible for it to be handled worse than the way it was. The US response has been a disaster from the top down.
- hodgesrm 7y ago
  I'm not excusing the poor execution on the part of the US government--it's been awful. But it seems to me that the core problem has been leadership not taking the advice of scientists rather than whether the CDC exists or not. If you are going to run 'what if' scenarios it's worth asking what if somebody like Mario Cuomo had been in the White House in early January? (Or any of several other US governors for that matter.)
  - mullingitover 7y ago
    > If you are going to run 'what if' scenarios it's worth asking what if somebody like Mario Cuomo had been in the White House in early January? (Or any of several other US governors for that matter.) I have been thinking all along that even someone who has been dead for five years would be a suitable replacement for current leadership. Seriously though, yes, Andrew Cuomo is a walking demonstration of what competent leadership looks like. I wish we had that at the federal level.

tomohawk 7y ago

on 17th of January: > The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission’s daily update declares, “A total of 763 close contacts have been tracked, 665 medical observations have been lifted, and 98 people are still receiving medical observations. Among the close contacts, no related cases were found.” So, the CCP (China Commmunist Party) is still lying about it on the 17th of January. This is weeks after Chinese doctors in the hospital are well aware of what's going on, and had tried to get word out. However, this is what happened to them: > The Wuhan Public Security Bureau issued summons to Dr. Li Wenliang, accusing him of “spreading rumors.” Two days later, at a police station, Dr. Li signed a statement acknowledging his “misdemeanor” and promising not to commit further “unlawful acts.” Seven other people are arrested on similar charges and their fate is unknown. This head fake by the CCP, and the collaboration of the WHO, threw off the CDC and many others. Yes, the CDC screwed up and should have been more skeptical of the CCP and should have had a better game plan, but that is in a whole different category than the actions of the CCP.