4 ms·

Because everyone else is only 20 days or so behind Italy. As WHO experts say from their experience with Ebola and others, it's better to act early. I see a lo

Because everyone else is only 20 days or so behind Italy. As WHO experts say from their experience with Ebola and others, it's better to act early. I see a lot of disbelief on this site too, it appears that exponential growth can fool even us. Only 2 weeks ago I noticed people here saying that Trump must be doing something right in the US because the country hasn't gone to hell. I replied with "give it another week or two". And now the situation in New York is dire and everyone else is following, with the US poised to be the next epicenter. What country are you from btw? Are you sure the population is properly tested? Given the lack of tests or expertise on the market I kind of doubt it. This virus is dangerous because 75% or more of the infected population is close to asymptomatic, yet highly contagious. You might be having a lot more cases among you than you realize.

mantas 7y ago
> Because everyone else is only 20 days or so behind Italy. No. Over here we have flat growth. Amount of new cases is not growing at all. In fact last 5 days day-to-day amount was lower than record day. Meanwhile amount of tests done is growing. > As WHO experts say from their experience with Ebola and others, it's better to act early. Yes. And we did act early. Our situation 3 weeks ago weren't as bad as Italy or Spain, thus we didn't as harsh measures. It looks like it worked. > I see a lot of disbelief on this site too, it appears that exponential growth can fool even us. It's not exponential everywhere. > What country are you from btw? Lithuania Best statistics we got bellow. Top-right is cases (overall vs daily), bottom-right is testing (overall vs daily). https://vu-lt.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/e27574647d6f41ddaf7ed28a7587f6b5 https://vu-lt.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/... > Are you sure the population is properly tested? Given the lack of tests or expertise on the market I kind of doubt it. What is "properly tested"? Testing everybody? No. Testing suspects? Yes. We're also testing everybody coming from abroad (EU or not) for over a week. Before that, it was self-isolation + testing on symptoms since late february. Big chunk of new cases comes from that. > This virus is dangerous because 75% or more of the infected population is close to asymptomatic, yet highly contagious. You might be having a lot more cases among you than you realize. We definitely have much more asymptomatic cases. But amount of new symptomatic cases is not growing. Either it's only spreading asymptomatic (which is unlikely), or spreading is slowing down. We're now in our 3rd week of quarantine (social distancing + restaurants and non-essential shops closed). Had it not worked, we should already see a spike of symptomatic cases.
- bad_user 7y ago
  I hope you'll be OK, however I'm not holding my breath. I'm from Romania and we were at 500 cases and a doubling time of roughly 6 days only a week ago or so. Our cases were also imported, via emigrants returning home. Confirmed cases have exploded since then due to a couple of community hotspots and we're well on track to join the west. So good luck to you, I hope we'll all come out of this well.
  - mantas 7y ago
    No worries, I do take this 100% seriously. I cut down my contacts to minimum, not visiting any places were people get together (groceries bought online etc), basics like washing hands etc. Unfortunately it's hard to get a mask yet, so I've to resort to scarf when coming into contact with people. And most people seem to take it seriously too. So far we had few nasty spreads in hospitals (mostly doctors coming from skiing trips) and parties. But all cases so far seem to be +/- contained. Fingers crossed we don't get a superspreader sometime soon. Emigrants' comeback routes are virtually closed. Pretty much only traffic from outside is truckers. Easter weekend and the week after it will be make-it-or-break-it. I could see life slowly opening up if masks are widely available by that time. Stay safe. It's not end of the world. Stay calm, wear mask, wash hands and we'll be fine.

mantas 7y ago

> Because everyone else is only 20 days or so behind Italy. No. Over here we have flat growth. Amount of new cases is not growing at all. In fact last 5 days day-to-day amount was lower than record day. Meanwhile amount of tests done is growing. > As WHO experts say from their experience with Ebola and others, it's better to act early. Yes. And we did act early. Our situation 3 weeks ago weren't as bad as Italy or Spain, thus we didn't as harsh measures. It looks like it worked. > I see a lot of disbelief on this site too, it appears that exponential growth can fool even us. It's not exponential everywhere. > What country are you from btw? Lithuania Best statistics we got bellow. Top-right is cases (overall vs daily), bottom-right is testing (overall vs daily). https://vu-lt.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/e27574647d6f41ddaf7ed28a7587f6b5 https://vu-lt.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/... > Are you sure the population is properly tested? Given the lack of tests or expertise on the market I kind of doubt it. What is "properly tested"? Testing everybody? No. Testing suspects? Yes. We're also testing everybody coming from abroad (EU or not) for over a week. Before that, it was self-isolation + testing on symptoms since late february. Big chunk of new cases comes from that. > This virus is dangerous because 75% or more of the infected population is close to asymptomatic, yet highly contagious. You might be having a lot more cases among you than you realize. We definitely have much more asymptomatic cases. But amount of new symptomatic cases is not growing. Either it's only spreading asymptomatic (which is unlikely), or spreading is slowing down. We're now in our 3rd week of quarantine (social distancing + restaurants and non-essential shops closed). Had it not worked, we should already see a spike of symptomatic cases.

bad_user 7y ago
I hope you'll be OK, however I'm not holding my breath. I'm from Romania and we were at 500 cases and a doubling time of roughly 6 days only a week ago or so. Our cases were also imported, via emigrants returning home. Confirmed cases have exploded since then due to a couple of community hotspots and we're well on track to join the west. So good luck to you, I hope we'll all come out of this well.
- mantas 7y ago
  No worries, I do take this 100% seriously. I cut down my contacts to minimum, not visiting any places were people get together (groceries bought online etc), basics like washing hands etc. Unfortunately it's hard to get a mask yet, so I've to resort to scarf when coming into contact with people. And most people seem to take it seriously too. So far we had few nasty spreads in hospitals (mostly doctors coming from skiing trips) and parties. But all cases so far seem to be +/- contained. Fingers crossed we don't get a superspreader sometime soon. Emigrants' comeback routes are virtually closed. Pretty much only traffic from outside is truckers. Easter weekend and the week after it will be make-it-or-break-it. I could see life slowly opening up if masks are widely available by that time. Stay safe. It's not end of the world. Stay calm, wear mask, wash hands and we'll be fine.