3 ms·

> Evidence to date outside Asia is, zero flattening That's not true. "new daily deaths" are fairly flat in Italy over the last week, not doubling geometricall

> Evidence to date outside Asia is, zero flattening That's not true. "new daily deaths" are fairly flat in Italy over the last week, not doubling geometrically at all. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ If the lockdown is working in other countries, then a similar state will be reached 3 weeks afterwards. Daily new cases is down in Italy since peak on 21 March - that's a leading metric compared to deaths, although it is less precise because it can be swayed by changes in testing.

JoeAltmaier 7y ago
Well I hope its true. The curves have shown 'levelling off' before, only to return to geometric growth when testing increases. E.g. click on a country on the left, select 'logarithmic' on the lower right and see what you think: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
- SideburnsOfDoom 7y ago
  Sure, more time/data is needed to know for sure. If you factor in 1 week until symptoms, another 1-2 weeks until the worst part of the illness, then yes, the effect of lock down on death rates won't be seen until 2-3 weeks have passed. This is the UK 2.5 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stereophonics/status/1238944498006274048 https://twitter.com/stereophonics/status/1238944498006274048
  - SideburnsOfDoom 7y ago
    * Average time between infection and death from COVID-19 is 23 days. https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/1245415339149705219 https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/12454153391497052... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... So lockdown won't be reflected in death rates until _over_ 3 weeks have passed. This is the UK, 3 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stevethewall/status/1244249363427328003 https://twitter.com/stevethewall/status/1244249363427328003

JoeAltmaier 7y ago

Well I hope its true. The curves have shown 'levelling off' before, only to return to geometric growth when testing increases. E.g. click on a country on the left, select 'logarithmic' on the lower right and see what you think: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

SideburnsOfDoom 7y ago
Sure, more time/data is needed to know for sure. If you factor in 1 week until symptoms, another 1-2 weeks until the worst part of the illness, then yes, the effect of lock down on death rates won't be seen until 2-3 weeks have passed. This is the UK 2.5 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stereophonics/status/1238944498006274048 https://twitter.com/stereophonics/status/1238944498006274048
- SideburnsOfDoom 7y ago
  * Average time between infection and death from COVID-19 is 23 days. https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/1245415339149705219 https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/12454153391497052... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... So lockdown won't be reflected in death rates until _over_ 3 weeks have passed. This is the UK, 3 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stevethewall/status/1244249363427328003 https://twitter.com/stevethewall/status/1244249363427328003