3 ms·

> What number of deaths would it take to convince you to agree to a 3-4 month shutdown? None. You are either ready for a massive shutdown or you are not. I ac

by csomar 7y ago

> What number of deaths would it take to convince you to agree to a 3-4 month shutdown? None. You are either ready for a massive shutdown or you are not. I actually was convinced of the shutdown until just a couple days ago. Things start to break. Your car insurance might expire. Your heater might go down but there is no one to repair it. Cabin fever (even though I'm an introvert and probably handling it better than most people out there). Some people are stuck in one place and need to move to another place. As time goes by, I can see more and more people changing to the opinion that this was a bad idea. They are not ready and the shutdown risk completely devastating their life or worse. > What qualifications do you have to assume this virus might kill 100k and not 10 million? Are you ok with 10 million? We know it's deadly but not that deadly. The numbers from Korea, Italy and the Diamond princess are not good but they are not world-ending either. They are painful but that's it. > Assuming you have friends who have elderly parents, are you ok with visiting them to tell them they are likely to die but it's for a good cause - 'the economy'. I have elderly parents. The guideline is that they stay at home. They have a garden, a couple dogs and enough food. But at some point I expect that they'll probably be okay with the risk and seeing me rather than spending 2 year confined with no human contact.

xur17 7y ago
> Cabin fever (even though I'm an introvert and probably handling it better than most people out there). This part has been interesting - I live alone, and have worked from home for a while, but it's still starting to get to me. I can't imagine people that live by themselves and are used to going to the office every day / are more extroverted.
- csomar 7y ago
  They are going bonkers. I live in a small compound with gardens. I have a strict policy for not interacting with neighbors or not getting into their affairs (for lengthy reasons). A couple days ago I was about to call the police for what's possibly a bad fight/domestic violence for the neighbors next door. The neighbor above me had decided she wants to become a singer and now (as I am typing) is loudly signing. The one above that (second floor) is dropping kitchen object every other day and comes to collect/apologize for that. This is fine.
- therealdrag0 7y ago
  Same for me, doing okay, but kinda getting to me. On the other hand, my partner is an extrovert and has cried multiple times saying "Imagine how you would feel if you were forced to go to a crowded party every day after work. I feel stressed and overwhelmed".
- breakbread 7y ago
  My wife and I argue [playfully, but still] about who gets to make a grocery run. I'm the introverted one, so under normal circumstances I take any chance I get to stay at home. But I do get a certain kind of energy just from being around people in public, which is why I like grocery shopping.
ceejayoz 7y ago
> Your car insurance might expire. Do it online, or over the phone. (I just did!) New York is waiving things like annual car inspections and registration renewals, as well. > Your heater might go down but there is no one to repair it. Most of the shutdown implementations permit emergency repairs and grocery/medicine shopping.
- csomar 7y ago
  > Do it online, or over the phone. (I just did!) New York is waiving things like annual car inspections and registration renewals, as well. I live in a third-world. That's not an option. Insurance is waived for 2 weeks. But they just extended the confinement for 2 weeks more. How much are they going to keep waiving? > Most of the shutdown implementations permit emergency repairs and grocery/medicine shopping. These get disrupted because of the regulations/bureaucracies. Repairers now have to get a permit to go outside and drive. A simple grocery trip now takes 1.5-2 hours and lots of items are no longer available. This will get worse as the chain is pretty much disrupted at multiple levels.
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    > How much are they going to keep waiving? This seems like a silly question. If they're already waiving, it's likely they'll continue to do so as long as the travel restrictions are in place. The first waiver seems like a pretty clear "we're not idiots" signal. Not that you need car insurance if you're stuck at home... > This will get worse as the chain is pretty much disrupted at multiple levels. It's likely it'll get better as the initial supply shock eases and supply chains recover. It's not like we're all suddenly eating twice as much food - we just bought more than usual all at once.
    - baq 7y ago
      insurance law nitpick: there are countries where not having an insurance active will cost you dearly just for that fact alone even if the car happily sits in a walled-off garage.
viklove 7y ago
There's no number? So even if 90% of people were going to die you would be against a shutdown? Wat
- csomar 7y ago
  If the virus killed 90%, we might actually do something about it. Like having everyone in a hazmat suit and do massive testing. Everybody will be going on about their life better than. Remember that some viruses (like Smallpox) kill at 30% and the world didn't have a shutdown but actually many wars through. But because this is an opportunity for power grab by the government they'll much better prefer to have everyone confined rather than implement sanitary procedure and do massive testing.
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    Smallpox became endemic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)) long before fast international travel. If a disease like it emerged today (high R0 factor, high mortality) we would absolutely need a shutdown. > Like having everyone in a hazmat suit and do massive testing. That'd require a shutdown in order to produce enough PPE and tests. Just like we're currently experiencing.
    - iso1631 7y ago
      > If a disease like it emerged today (high R0 factor, high mortality) we would absolutely need a shutdown. This is what worries me. This disease isn't as bad as it could be, but will reset expectations. Go in too hard and next time, with a similar disease but with a higher utilisation and it's a mess.
    - baq 7y ago
      a smallpox analog now would break this world. covid-19 is a minor inconvenience in comparison. you've given me shivers just by making me think about it.
btilly 7y ago
We know it's deadly but not that deadly. The numbers from Korea, Italy and the Diamond princess are not good but they are not world-ending either. They are painful but that's it. I am unclear on what you mean by "not that deadly". So let's discuss exactly how deadly we are talking about. However https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... is a research paper published 2 days ago. Their median estimate for the infection fatality rate is 0.66%. Which, applied to the US population, suggests on the order of 2 million deaths. (More if everyone gets it, probably a bit less since only most of us would be likely to get it.) If half the world population gets it, make that about 20 million. Or about a third of the total deaths in WW 2. These kinds of evidence based numbers are rather worse than I would describe as, "...painful but that's it." But maybe your standards are different than mine.
- iso1631 7y ago
  > Their median estimate for the infection fatality rate is 0.66%. Which, applied to the US population, suggests on the order of 2 million deaths 3 million a year die in the U.S. each year anyway. How many of those 3 million will die of covid this year rather than cancer, or heart failure? Does that really matter?
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    Yes, it really matters.
    - iso1631 7y ago
      How much does it matter? How much are you willing to spend to kill someone from cancer in July than kill someone from pneumonia in May?
      - ceejayoz 7y ago
        The idea that every one of the millions dead from COVID-19 would've died anyways in the same year is... unsupported, to say the least.
balladeer 7y ago
> The numbers from Korea, Italy and the Diamond princess are not good but they are not world-ending either. You lumped Korea and Italy together which is strange. Then apparently (seeing your comment chain) you tried to transpose it onto US and rest of the world. Korea was ready (experience with previous outbreaks). They started early. They tested like there's no tomorrow and are still doing that. Test - isolate, test - isolate, test - isolate. Everybody wearing masks - negative, positive, or untested. Everybody [1] And their health infra is impeccable. They are people with a great civic sense (I have lived there for months). 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU
thefunnyman 7y ago
Perhaps we should be asking ourselves if our current system is flawed if have to choose to kill millions of people to keep the economy afloat. Certainly poor people will be greatly affected by the shutdown but to me that shows clear need for systematic change. Perhaps universal basic income isn't so wild an idea after all.

by csomar 7y ago

xur17 7y ago

> Cabin fever (even though I'm an introvert and probably handling it better than most people out there). This part has been interesting - I live alone, and have worked from home for a while, but it's still starting to get to me. I can't imagine people that live by themselves and are used to going to the office every day / are more extroverted.

csomar 7y ago
They are going bonkers. I live in a small compound with gardens. I have a strict policy for not interacting with neighbors or not getting into their affairs (for lengthy reasons). A couple days ago I was about to call the police for what's possibly a bad fight/domestic violence for the neighbors next door. The neighbor above me had decided she wants to become a singer and now (as I am typing) is loudly signing. The one above that (second floor) is dropping kitchen object every other day and comes to collect/apologize for that. This is fine.
therealdrag0 7y ago
Same for me, doing okay, but kinda getting to me. On the other hand, my partner is an extrovert and has cried multiple times saying "Imagine how you would feel if you were forced to go to a crowded party every day after work. I feel stressed and overwhelmed".
breakbread 7y ago
My wife and I argue [playfully, but still] about who gets to make a grocery run. I'm the introverted one, so under normal circumstances I take any chance I get to stay at home. But I do get a certain kind of energy just from being around people in public, which is why I like grocery shopping.

ceejayoz 7y ago

> Your car insurance might expire. Do it online, or over the phone. (I just did!) New York is waiving things like annual car inspections and registration renewals, as well. > Your heater might go down but there is no one to repair it. Most of the shutdown implementations permit emergency repairs and grocery/medicine shopping.

csomar 7y ago
> Do it online, or over the phone. (I just did!) New York is waiving things like annual car inspections and registration renewals, as well. I live in a third-world. That's not an option. Insurance is waived for 2 weeks. But they just extended the confinement for 2 weeks more. How much are they going to keep waiving? > Most of the shutdown implementations permit emergency repairs and grocery/medicine shopping. These get disrupted because of the regulations/bureaucracies. Repairers now have to get a permit to go outside and drive. A simple grocery trip now takes 1.5-2 hours and lots of items are no longer available. This will get worse as the chain is pretty much disrupted at multiple levels.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  > How much are they going to keep waiving? This seems like a silly question. If they're already waiving, it's likely they'll continue to do so as long as the travel restrictions are in place. The first waiver seems like a pretty clear "we're not idiots" signal. Not that you need car insurance if you're stuck at home... > This will get worse as the chain is pretty much disrupted at multiple levels. It's likely it'll get better as the initial supply shock eases and supply chains recover. It's not like we're all suddenly eating twice as much food - we just bought more than usual all at once.
  - baq 7y ago
    insurance law nitpick: there are countries where not having an insurance active will cost you dearly just for that fact alone even if the car happily sits in a walled-off garage.

viklove 7y ago

There's no number? So even if 90% of people were going to die you would be against a shutdown? Wat

csomar 7y ago
If the virus killed 90%, we might actually do something about it. Like having everyone in a hazmat suit and do massive testing. Everybody will be going on about their life better than. Remember that some viruses (like Smallpox) kill at 30% and the world didn't have a shutdown but actually many wars through. But because this is an opportunity for power grab by the government they'll much better prefer to have everyone confined rather than implement sanitary procedure and do massive testing.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  Smallpox became endemic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)) long before fast international travel. If a disease like it emerged today (high R0 factor, high mortality) we would absolutely need a shutdown. > Like having everyone in a hazmat suit and do massive testing. That'd require a shutdown in order to produce enough PPE and tests. Just like we're currently experiencing.
  - iso1631 7y ago
    > If a disease like it emerged today (high R0 factor, high mortality) we would absolutely need a shutdown. This is what worries me. This disease isn't as bad as it could be, but will reset expectations. Go in too hard and next time, with a similar disease but with a higher utilisation and it's a mess.
  - baq 7y ago
    a smallpox analog now would break this world. covid-19 is a minor inconvenience in comparison. you've given me shivers just by making me think about it.

btilly 7y ago

We know it's deadly but not that deadly. The numbers from Korea, Italy and the Diamond princess are not good but they are not world-ending either. They are painful but that's it. I am unclear on what you mean by "not that deadly". So let's discuss exactly how deadly we are talking about. However https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... is a research paper published 2 days ago. Their median estimate for the infection fatality rate is 0.66%. Which, applied to the US population, suggests on the order of 2 million deaths. (More if everyone gets it, probably a bit less since only most of us would be likely to get it.) If half the world population gets it, make that about 20 million. Or about a third of the total deaths in WW 2. These kinds of evidence based numbers are rather worse than I would describe as, "...painful but that's it." But maybe your standards are different than mine.

iso1631 7y ago
> Their median estimate for the infection fatality rate is 0.66%. Which, applied to the US population, suggests on the order of 2 million deaths 3 million a year die in the U.S. each year anyway. How many of those 3 million will die of covid this year rather than cancer, or heart failure? Does that really matter?
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  Yes, it really matters.
  - iso1631 7y ago
    How much does it matter? How much are you willing to spend to kill someone from cancer in July than kill someone from pneumonia in May?
    - ceejayoz 7y ago
      The idea that every one of the millions dead from COVID-19 would've died anyways in the same year is... unsupported, to say the least.

balladeer 7y ago

> The numbers from Korea, Italy and the Diamond princess are not good but they are not world-ending either. You lumped Korea and Italy together which is strange. Then apparently (seeing your comment chain) you tried to transpose it onto US and rest of the world. Korea was ready (experience with previous outbreaks). They started early. They tested like there's no tomorrow and are still doing that. Test - isolate, test - isolate, test - isolate. Everybody wearing masks - negative, positive, or untested. Everybody [1] And their health infra is impeccable. They are people with a great civic sense (I have lived there for months). 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

thefunnyman 7y ago

Perhaps we should be asking ourselves if our current system is flawed if have to choose to kill millions of people to keep the economy afloat. Certainly poor people will be greatly affected by the shutdown but to me that shows clear need for systematic change. Perhaps universal basic income isn't so wild an idea after all.