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I would not be surprised if fatalities overall remain flat due to lowered activity. That doesn't mean they would not explode without them. Germany is an outlier

by sgc 7y ago

I would not be surprised if fatalities overall remain flat due to lowered activity. That doesn't mean they would not explode without them. Germany is an outlier, not the norm as basically all statistics we have at this point indicate. I agree that Germany needs a different course of action than other countries, but I don't think that is widely applicable. Milan was not overwhelmed by influenza, that is just an Italian title, which is full of energy/exaggeration as usual. The article talks of 48 cases, which is a far cry from the 40,000+ they have in that region now. Frankly, anybody peddling that a crushing blow to the world economy is conspiracy to get a little more funding for one sector should be discredited whoever they are. That is ludicrous. There is far to much avarice in too many competing sectors, just for starters. And scientists are not that cutthroat as a group. I think you misinterpret the last link you posted. He does not advocate for doing nothing, but for quickly gathering data and changing our tactics as new information comes in, since there are risks both in quarantine and in not quarantining. I think everyone agrees with this and it is actually what all countries are doing. Even Italy is reevaluating their quarantine measures weekly, etc. I do agree with you that the economic risk is enormous, and I am unconvinced that my business will exist when I can work again. But at the same time there is nothing to say what we did in the face of illness before this quarantine was human or correct. I think we are too callous about "normal" annual deaths from other causes and if anything comes from this massive effort, I hope it is an awareness of these other causes of death and funding and concrete action going towards them. It's no conspiracy to recognize that investing in better health of the population by effective, concrete steps to guarantee and promote diet, exercise, etc would be a worthwhile item to invest far more resources to than we currently do.

s9w 7y ago
> I would not be surprised if fatalities overall remain flat What would be enough evidence in a month or two that you would agree that this was fantastically overblown? I fear that even after this is over, the numbers will be be same same but still misrepresented by everyone to say that it was all necessary.
- sgc 7y ago
  I doubt that would be possible in that time frame. But I would need to see evidence of basic herd immunity or a massive chunk of herd immunity (50% population including representative percentage of the elderly) with low death rates, including in areas where medical systems were overwhelmed. Otherwise an effective preventative quarantine will always on face value look like an exaggeration, since the goal is to avoid something before it happens. But looking at New York and Milan, etc, I think that option is fast becoming a fantasy if it is not one already. Solidarity and group effort are important parts of what it means to be human.
  - s9w 7y ago
    That is a very high bar to prove and therefore a very low bar to implement these harsh measures. The measures themselves are inhuman too. I think we both weight our rights, the medical risk and economic danger differently but I can see your reasoning.
    - sgc 7y ago
      Maybe we should be infecting under 40s with a very low dose of the virus so they have an ever higher probability of getting just a little sick, and jump start the herd immunity process. It would be a form of vaccine-lite and allow a lot of people to get back to a normal life sooner rather than later.

by sgc 7y ago

s9w 7y ago

> I would not be surprised if fatalities overall remain flat What would be enough evidence in a month or two that you would agree that this was fantastically overblown? I fear that even after this is over, the numbers will be be same same but still misrepresented by everyone to say that it was all necessary.

sgc 7y ago
I doubt that would be possible in that time frame. But I would need to see evidence of basic herd immunity or a massive chunk of herd immunity (50% population including representative percentage of the elderly) with low death rates, including in areas where medical systems were overwhelmed. Otherwise an effective preventative quarantine will always on face value look like an exaggeration, since the goal is to avoid something before it happens. But looking at New York and Milan, etc, I think that option is fast becoming a fantasy if it is not one already. Solidarity and group effort are important parts of what it means to be human.
- s9w 7y ago
  That is a very high bar to prove and therefore a very low bar to implement these harsh measures. The measures themselves are inhuman too. I think we both weight our rights, the medical risk and economic danger differently but I can see your reasoning.
  - sgc 7y ago
    Maybe we should be infecting under 40s with a very low dose of the virus so they have an ever higher probability of getting just a little sick, and jump start the herd immunity process. It would be a form of vaccine-lite and allow a lot of people to get back to a normal life sooner rather than later.