4 ms·

Ah, but the big question is how much curve-flattening stretches it out in your country of residence. Some societies will choose such that their medical infrast

Ah, but the big question is how much curve-flattening stretches it out in your country of residence. Some societies will choose such that their medical infrastructure will be at 10x capacity for ten times as long rather than be at 100x capacity. Others will manage to stamp it out, only to endure subsequent flare-ups. Unconstrained doubling is only a popular policy among oligarchs in power. To be fair, they do have a lot of power...

JoeAltmaier 7y ago
Evidence to date outside Asia is, zero flattening. Most places. Thus my estimate. If you want to posit some slight flattening, then 70 day? No more. The terrible power of geometric growth cannot be resisted for long. You need to change the growth rules entirely to beat it. No half-measures will do it.
- SideburnsOfDoom 7y ago
  > Evidence to date outside Asia is, zero flattening That's not true. "new daily deaths" are fairly flat in Italy over the last week, not doubling geometrically at all. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ If the lockdown is working in other countries, then a similar state will be reached 3 weeks afterwards. Daily new cases is down in Italy since peak on 21 March - that's a leading metric compared to deaths, although it is less precise because it can be swayed by changes in testing.
  - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
    Well I hope its true. The curves have shown 'levelling off' before, only to return to geometric growth when testing increases. E.g. click on a country on the left, select 'logarithmic' on the lower right and see what you think: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
    - SideburnsOfDoom 7y ago
      Sure, more time/data is needed to know for sure. If you factor in 1 week until symptoms, another 1-2 weeks until the worst part of the illness, then yes, the effect of lock down on death rates won't be seen until 2-3 weeks have passed. This is the UK 2.5 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stereophonics/status/1238944498006274048 https://twitter.com/stereophonics/status/1238944498006274048
      - SideburnsOfDoom 7y ago
        * Average time between infection and death from COVID-19 is 23 days. https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/1245415339149705219 https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/12454153391497052... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... So lockdown won't be reflected in death rates until _over_ 3 weeks have passed. This is the UK, 3 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stevethewall/status/1244249363427328003 https://twitter.com/stevethewall/status/1244249363427328003

JoeAltmaier 7y ago

Evidence to date outside Asia is, zero flattening. Most places. Thus my estimate. If you want to posit some slight flattening, then 70 day? No more. The terrible power of geometric growth cannot be resisted for long. You need to change the growth rules entirely to beat it. No half-measures will do it.

SideburnsOfDoom 7y ago
> Evidence to date outside Asia is, zero flattening That's not true. "new daily deaths" are fairly flat in Italy over the last week, not doubling geometrically at all. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ If the lockdown is working in other countries, then a similar state will be reached 3 weeks afterwards. Daily new cases is down in Italy since peak on 21 March - that's a leading metric compared to deaths, although it is less precise because it can be swayed by changes in testing.
- JoeAltmaier 7y ago
  Well I hope its true. The curves have shown 'levelling off' before, only to return to geometric growth when testing increases. E.g. click on a country on the left, select 'logarithmic' on the lower right and see what you think: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
  - SideburnsOfDoom 7y ago
    Sure, more time/data is needed to know for sure. If you factor in 1 week until symptoms, another 1-2 weeks until the worst part of the illness, then yes, the effect of lock down on death rates won't be seen until 2-3 weeks have passed. This is the UK 2.5 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stereophonics/status/1238944498006274048 https://twitter.com/stereophonics/status/1238944498006274048
    - SideburnsOfDoom 7y ago
      * Average time between infection and death from COVID-19 is 23 days. https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/1245415339149705219 https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/12454153391497052... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... So lockdown won't be reflected in death rates until _over_ 3 weeks have passed. This is the UK, 3 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stevethewall/status/1244249363427328003 https://twitter.com/stevethewall/status/1244249363427328003