4 ms·

82F or 27C would be average to low temp considering South India. Its around 32 now and might increase in coming months.

totalZero 7y ago
That's a bit of hairsplitting, but I'll follow your line of thinking to explain what I mean. Saudi Arabia is asking Muslims to defer Hajj due to coronavirus. Today's high in Mecca is estimated 99F (37C). Today's high in Porto Alegre, a little bit to the south of Sao Paolo in a state with hundreds of cases, is 89F (32C). That's just about the same temperature as you might find today in Kerala. All three places -- Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India -- get hot. The point is that there is no evidence of a magic threshold temperature above which we are safe. We can't assume that summer temperatures decrease contagion. I hope it is true that the virus abates in warm weather, but hope isn't a basis for decision-making. People in squalid Indian slums are exposed to much sickness and death that would be easily eradicated by access to good medical care, sanitation infrastructure, and reliable pharmaceuticals. Child mortality is alarmingly high in these slums. These poor people are vulnerable. It does them a disservice for government administrators to convince themselves that there may be a simple, inexpensive solution in the form of natural weather patterns. It's an insidious thing, this suggestion. On the one hand, it feels hopeful to think that the climate will interfere with contagion. On the other hand, the idea is harmful because it counteracts the fear of outbreak that should be motivating governments to listen to their public health officials and be proactive and aggressive in mitigating the outbreak.
- hesarenu 7y ago
  I mentioned the temp because you said san palo has high of 27C. 27C is like night time temp in my home town for this season. So yeah its not a high temp. Porto Alegre high seems to be around 29. We have high in terms of 32/34 etc. Ahmedabad has high like 38plus which is very hot even for us southern guys. I have no idea if temp makes a difference of not. Number of tests are very low to determine that. And one more thing not all people live in slums in India. India is too big and varied. Visiting Mumbai slums does not mean we are filled with it.
  - totalZero 7y ago
    Ahmedabad sounds very hot indeed. Guayaquil in Ecuador is another outbreak zone. 245km south of the Equator, 32C today. Dead bodies rest in the streets for days, people are dying in front of hospitals, morgues are full, and even the mayor has tested positive. The official death count is above 60 but is considered by many to be a fraction of the true toll, since testing capacity is scarce and deaths of the untested do not contribute to the count. https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/the-impossibility-of-burial-doubles-the-pain-of-coronavirus-in-guayaquil/24350 https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/the-impossibility-of-bur... https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/en-espanol/noticias/story/2020-04-02/en-guayaquil-ecuador-la-gente-vive-entre-sus-muertos https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/en-espanol/noticias/sto... I don't think all people live in slums in India. I've never been there. I've been all over Latin America and have seen the good and the bad. The problem with the developing countries here in the Americas isn't poverty; it's disparity. The urban poor are truly destitute, face challenges that never affect the rich, and are locked out of certain strata of economic and political life. Yet, you can walk two blocks down the street from a slum and find yourself in front of a luxury high-rise where life is totally different and residents feel a mix of fear and pity for their less-fortunate neighbors. I imagine that India has a similar combination of extremely developed and extremely destitute areas. My personal view is that the ruling classes tolerate this arrangement when crime can be contained, because slums are a source of cheap labor. Destitute areas are a risk when it comes to contagion management. Tens of millions of people live in slums in India, and those places could be a breeding ground among individuals who then carry their illness to work or to hospitals. Annual childhood mortality has been counted in the millions in India's slums, and COVID-19 wouldn't be the only disease making the rounds there. The risk of secondary infection would increase mortality among a population that already lacks good access to health care.

That's a bit of hairsplitting, but I'll follow your line of thinking to explain what I mean. Saudi Arabia is asking Muslims to defer Hajj due to coronavirus. Today's high in Mecca is estimated 99F (37C). Today's high in Porto Alegre, a little bit to the south of Sao Paolo in a state with hundreds of cases, is 89F (32C). That's just about the same temperature as you might find today in Kerala. All three places -- Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India -- get hot. The point is that there is no evidence of a magic threshold temperature above which we are safe. We can't assume that summer temperatures decrease contagion. I hope it is true that the virus abates in warm weather, but hope isn't a basis for decision-making. People in squalid Indian slums are exposed to much sickness and death that would be easily eradicated by access to good medical care, sanitation infrastructure, and reliable pharmaceuticals. Child mortality is alarmingly high in these slums. These poor people are vulnerable. It does them a disservice for government administrators to convince themselves that there may be a simple, inexpensive solution in the form of natural weather patterns. It's an insidious thing, this suggestion. On the one hand, it feels hopeful to think that the climate will interfere with contagion. On the other hand, the idea is harmful because it counteracts the fear of outbreak that should be motivating governments to listen to their public health officials and be proactive and aggressive in mitigating the outbreak.

hesarenu 7y ago
I mentioned the temp because you said san palo has high of 27C. 27C is like night time temp in my home town for this season. So yeah its not a high temp. Porto Alegre high seems to be around 29. We have high in terms of 32/34 etc. Ahmedabad has high like 38plus which is very hot even for us southern guys. I have no idea if temp makes a difference of not. Number of tests are very low to determine that. And one more thing not all people live in slums in India. India is too big and varied. Visiting Mumbai slums does not mean we are filled with it.
- totalZero 7y ago
  Ahmedabad sounds very hot indeed. Guayaquil in Ecuador is another outbreak zone. 245km south of the Equator, 32C today. Dead bodies rest in the streets for days, people are dying in front of hospitals, morgues are full, and even the mayor has tested positive. The official death count is above 60 but is considered by many to be a fraction of the true toll, since testing capacity is scarce and deaths of the untested do not contribute to the count. https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/the-impossibility-of-burial-doubles-the-pain-of-coronavirus-in-guayaquil/24350 https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/the-impossibility-of-bur... https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/en-espanol/noticias/story/2020-04-02/en-guayaquil-ecuador-la-gente-vive-entre-sus-muertos https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/en-espanol/noticias/sto... I don't think all people live in slums in India. I've never been there. I've been all over Latin America and have seen the good and the bad. The problem with the developing countries here in the Americas isn't poverty; it's disparity. The urban poor are truly destitute, face challenges that never affect the rich, and are locked out of certain strata of economic and political life. Yet, you can walk two blocks down the street from a slum and find yourself in front of a luxury high-rise where life is totally different and residents feel a mix of fear and pity for their less-fortunate neighbors. I imagine that India has a similar combination of extremely developed and extremely destitute areas. My personal view is that the ruling classes tolerate this arrangement when crime can be contained, because slums are a source of cheap labor. Destitute areas are a risk when it comes to contagion management. Tens of millions of people live in slums in India, and those places could be a breeding ground among individuals who then carry their illness to work or to hospitals. Annual childhood mortality has been counted in the millions in India's slums, and COVID-19 wouldn't be the only disease making the rounds there. The risk of secondary infection would increase mortality among a population that already lacks good access to health care.