> https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 Thanks for this reference, hadn't see

> https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 Thanks for this reference, hadn't seen it yet. One important limitation - they estimate R0 based on serial interval and time course of number infected. Due to undercounting of cases this underestimates R0. Compare ICL report 13 (Flaxman et al., [0]), where based on doing the same thing using deaths, they get 3.87. So even if the magnitude of seasonal forcing is as that paper claims, it may well not be enough to stop exponential spread in the absence of additional mitigation measures. [0] http://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf http://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sp...