4 ms·

Then why the lockdown if there is no outbreak and it is too hot for the virus to spread?

by chvid 7y ago

mkl 7y ago
Heat slows it (edit: ?), but exponential growth is still exponential growth. From the article, India's doubling time is currently about 5 days [1]. In 20 days, that means going from 200 cases to 200 * 2⁴ = 3200. In 40 days, 200 * 2⁸ = 51000, and 62 days is enough to pass 1 million. The US has been doubling every 2-3 days, so it will get there faster (probably in spite of the measures being taken). Even Japan and Singapore still seem to be following an exponential curve, just with a doubling time of ~10 days. [1] See here for many countries (some data a day behind): https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flatte...
- totalZero 7y ago
  Do you have evidence that heat slows contagion of this virus, or is that simply an assumption based on other viral respiratory illnesses? Brazil has ~200 deaths while the average high in Sao Paulo for March is generally around 82F.
  - mkl 7y ago
    I personally don't. There are many articles about it though. Here, I'm making an assumption based on adventured's comments and links. The one with citations is now downvoted, so maybe it's bogus? It doesn't really matter if heat is slowing it in India (relative to e.g. USA) or something else is, the growth is still currently exponential.
  - hesarenu 7y ago
    82F or 27C would be average to low temp considering South India. Its around 32 now and might increase in coming months.
    - totalZero 7y ago
      That's a bit of hairsplitting, but I'll follow your line of thinking to explain what I mean. Saudi Arabia is asking Muslims to defer Hajj due to coronavirus. Today's high in Mecca is estimated 99F (37C). Today's high in Porto Alegre, a little bit to the south of Sao Paolo in a state with hundreds of cases, is 89F (32C). That's just about the same temperature as you might find today in Kerala. All three places -- Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India -- get hot. The point is that there is no evidence of a magic threshold temperature above which we are safe. We can't assume that summer temperatures decrease contagion. I hope it is true that the virus abates in warm weather, but hope isn't a basis for decision-making. People in squalid Indian slums are exposed to much sickness and death that would be easily eradicated by access to good medical care, sanitation infrastructure, and reliable pharmaceuticals. Child mortality is alarmingly high in these slums. These poor people are vulnerable. It does them a disservice for government administrators to convince themselves that there may be a simple, inexpensive solution in the form of natural weather patterns. It's an insidious thing, this suggestion. On the one hand, it feels hopeful to think that the climate will interfere with contagion. On the other hand, the idea is harmful because it counteracts the fear of outbreak that should be motivating governments to listen to their public health officials and be proactive and aggressive in mitigating the outbreak.
      - hesarenu 7y ago
        I mentioned the temp because you said san palo has high of 27C. 27C is like night time temp in my home town for this season. So yeah its not a high temp. Porto Alegre high seems to be around 29. We have high in terms of 32/34 etc. Ahmedabad has high like 38plus which is very hot even for us southern guys. I have no idea if temp makes a difference of not. Number of tests are very low to determine that. And one more thing not all people live in slums in India. India is too big and varied. Visiting Mumbai slums does not mean we are filled with it.
        totalZero 7y ago
        Ahmedabad sounds very hot indeed. Guayaquil in Ecuador is another outbreak zone. 245km south of the Equator, 32C today. Dead bodies rest in the streets for days, people are dying in front of hospitals, morgues are full, and even the mayor has tested positive. The official death count is above 60 but is considered by many to be a fraction of the true toll, since testing capacity is scarce and deaths of the untested do not contribute to the count. https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/the-impossibility-of-burial-doubles-the-pain-of-coronavirus-in-guayaquil/24350 https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/the-impossibility-of-bur... https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/en-espanol/noticias/story/2020-04-02/en-guayaquil-ecuador-la-gente-vive-entre-sus-muertos https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/en-espanol/noticias/sto... I don't think all people live in slums in India. I've never been there. I've been all over Latin America and have seen the good and the bad. The problem with the developing countries here in the Americas isn't poverty; it's disparity. The urban poor are truly destitute, face challenges that never affect the rich, and are locked out of certain strata of economic and political life. Yet, you can walk two blocks down the street from a slum and find yourself in front of a luxury high-rise where life is totally different and residents feel a mix of fear and pity for their less-fortunate neighbors. I imagine that India has a similar combination of extremely developed and extremely destitute areas. My personal view is that the ruling classes tolerate this arrangement when crime can be contained, because slums are a source of cheap labor. Destitute areas are a risk when it comes to contagion management. Tens of millions of people live in slums in India, and those places could be a breeding ground among individuals who then carry their illness to work or to hospitals. Annual childhood mortality has been counted in the millions in India's slums, and COVID-19 wouldn't be the only disease making the rounds there. The risk of secondary infection would increase mortality among a population that already lacks good access to health care.
rinka_singh 7y ago
Outbreak or no outbreak. We know that social distancing and especially the lockdown prevents transmission. In a densely populated country, that is the BEST alternative to us. We are not gambling on the fact that given all our advantages we MAY NOT have an outbreak. BTW, while the Govt. has called for the lockdown it is largely community driven and community implemented.

Then why the lockdown if there is no outbreak and it is too hot for the virus to spread?

by chvid 7y ago

Then why the lockdown if there is no outbreak and it is too hot for the virus to spread?

mkl 7y ago

Heat slows it (edit: ?), but exponential growth is still exponential growth. From the article, India's doubling time is currently about 5 days [1]. In 20 days, that means going from 200 cases to 200 * 2⁴ = 3200. In 40 days, 200 * 2⁸ = 51000, and 62 days is enough to pass 1 million. The US has been doubling every 2-3 days, so it will get there faster (probably in spite of the measures being taken). Even Japan and Singapore still seem to be following an exponential curve, just with a doubling time of ~10 days. [1] See here for many countries (some data a day behind): https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flatte...

totalZero 7y ago
Do you have evidence that heat slows contagion of this virus, or is that simply an assumption based on other viral respiratory illnesses? Brazil has ~200 deaths while the average high in Sao Paulo for March is generally around 82F.
- mkl 7y ago
  I personally don't. There are many articles about it though. Here, I'm making an assumption based on adventured's comments and links. The one with citations is now downvoted, so maybe it's bogus? It doesn't really matter if heat is slowing it in India (relative to e.g. USA) or something else is, the growth is still currently exponential.
- hesarenu 7y ago
  82F or 27C would be average to low temp considering South India. Its around 32 now and might increase in coming months.
  - totalZero 7y ago
    That's a bit of hairsplitting, but I'll follow your line of thinking to explain what I mean. Saudi Arabia is asking Muslims to defer Hajj due to coronavirus. Today's high in Mecca is estimated 99F (37C). Today's high in Porto Alegre, a little bit to the south of Sao Paolo in a state with hundreds of cases, is 89F (32C). That's just about the same temperature as you might find today in Kerala. All three places -- Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India -- get hot. The point is that there is no evidence of a magic threshold temperature above which we are safe. We can't assume that summer temperatures decrease contagion. I hope it is true that the virus abates in warm weather, but hope isn't a basis for decision-making. People in squalid Indian slums are exposed to much sickness and death that would be easily eradicated by access to good medical care, sanitation infrastructure, and reliable pharmaceuticals. Child mortality is alarmingly high in these slums. These poor people are vulnerable. It does them a disservice for government administrators to convince themselves that there may be a simple, inexpensive solution in the form of natural weather patterns. It's an insidious thing, this suggestion. On the one hand, it feels hopeful to think that the climate will interfere with contagion. On the other hand, the idea is harmful because it counteracts the fear of outbreak that should be motivating governments to listen to their public health officials and be proactive and aggressive in mitigating the outbreak.
    - hesarenu 7y ago
      I mentioned the temp because you said san palo has high of 27C. 27C is like night time temp in my home town for this season. So yeah its not a high temp. Porto Alegre high seems to be around 29. We have high in terms of 32/34 etc. Ahmedabad has high like 38plus which is very hot even for us southern guys. I have no idea if temp makes a difference of not. Number of tests are very low to determine that. And one more thing not all people live in slums in India. India is too big and varied. Visiting Mumbai slums does not mean we are filled with it.
      - totalZero 7y ago
        Ahmedabad sounds very hot indeed. Guayaquil in Ecuador is another outbreak zone. 245km south of the Equator, 32C today. Dead bodies rest in the streets for days, people are dying in front of hospitals, morgues are full, and even the mayor has tested positive. The official death count is above 60 but is considered by many to be a fraction of the true toll, since testing capacity is scarce and deaths of the untested do not contribute to the count. https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/the-impossibility-of-burial-doubles-the-pain-of-coronavirus-in-guayaquil/24350 https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/the-impossibility-of-bur... https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/en-espanol/noticias/story/2020-04-02/en-guayaquil-ecuador-la-gente-vive-entre-sus-muertos https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/en-espanol/noticias/sto... I don't think all people live in slums in India. I've never been there. I've been all over Latin America and have seen the good and the bad. The problem with the developing countries here in the Americas isn't poverty; it's disparity. The urban poor are truly destitute, face challenges that never affect the rich, and are locked out of certain strata of economic and political life. Yet, you can walk two blocks down the street from a slum and find yourself in front of a luxury high-rise where life is totally different and residents feel a mix of fear and pity for their less-fortunate neighbors. I imagine that India has a similar combination of extremely developed and extremely destitute areas. My personal view is that the ruling classes tolerate this arrangement when crime can be contained, because slums are a source of cheap labor. Destitute areas are a risk when it comes to contagion management. Tens of millions of people live in slums in India, and those places could be a breeding ground among individuals who then carry their illness to work or to hospitals. Annual childhood mortality has been counted in the millions in India's slums, and COVID-19 wouldn't be the only disease making the rounds there. The risk of secondary infection would increase mortality among a population that already lacks good access to health care.

rinka_singh 7y ago

Outbreak or no outbreak. We know that social distancing and especially the lockdown prevents transmission. In a densely populated country, that is the BEST alternative to us. We are not gambling on the fact that given all our advantages we MAY NOT have an outbreak. BTW, while the Govt. has called for the lockdown it is largely community driven and community implemented.