4 ms·

Fair enough. From what I make of this all we do not have strong enough data to really say this is as bad as we make it. We'll see in a month or two I guess when

by s9w 7y ago

Fair enough. From what I make of this all we do not have strong enough data to really say this is as bad as we make it. We'll see in a month or two I guess when we can conclusively look at the total mortality.

sgc 7y ago
I agree we don't know yet, it could be worse or better. But I think it will take a year or two to know based on how long it takes to do a post mortem on an influenza season. Certainly failure to quarantine would be devastating so whatever the final numbers are is irrelevant. We already have overwhelmed health systems around the world, and the fatality rate would be a whole different level if that was more widespread.
- s9w 7y ago
  I can't follow along with that. We're in peace times.. banning people from going out of their home is something I would not have believed possible until russian tanks are at the gates of Berlin again, or the day of reckoning is coming after all. The mortality is not increased [1], the number of acute respiratory illnesses is not increased [2]. German hospitals are not overwhelmed, indeed we gave away hundreds of respirators and treat a large number of patients from neighboring countries right now. There are single cases of overwhelmed medical systems, but those are few and in places where this has happened before [3] and frankly those places have not been in great shape before. I can't see the justification for these draconian measures with so little evidence. What I do see however is a perverse dynamic between sensationalist media and power hungry politicians. It's infuriating how critics are defamed by newspapers [4] and even high-profile experts ignored [5]. The economic and social downfall from these measures will be insurmountable I fear and dwarf any risk now or even in the foreseeable future from sars-cov-2. [1] https://www.euromomo.eu/ https://www.euromomo.eu/ [2] https://image.jimcdn.com/app/cms/image/transf/none/path/s56fbd84d0e131e9b/image/i2dc7965015368c97/version/1585168811/image.png https://image.jimcdn.com/app/cms/image/transf/none/path/s56f... [3] https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/milano-terapie-intensive-collasso-l-influenza-gia-48-malati-gravi-molte-operazioni-rinviate-c9dc43a6-f5d1-11e7-9b06-fe054c3be5b2.shtml https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/mil... [4] https://www.welt.de/gesundheit/article206667595/Wolfgang-Wodarg-Warum-dieser-Mann-die-Fakten-ignorieren-will.html https://www.welt.de/gesundheit/article206667595/Wolfgang-Wod... [5] https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-a...
  - sgc 7y ago
    I would not be surprised if fatalities overall remain flat due to lowered activity. That doesn't mean they would not explode without them. Germany is an outlier, not the norm as basically all statistics we have at this point indicate. I agree that Germany needs a different course of action than other countries, but I don't think that is widely applicable. Milan was not overwhelmed by influenza, that is just an Italian title, which is full of energy/exaggeration as usual. The article talks of 48 cases, which is a far cry from the 40,000+ they have in that region now. Frankly, anybody peddling that a crushing blow to the world economy is conspiracy to get a little more funding for one sector should be discredited whoever they are. That is ludicrous. There is far to much avarice in too many competing sectors, just for starters. And scientists are not that cutthroat as a group. I think you misinterpret the last link you posted. He does not advocate for doing nothing, but for quickly gathering data and changing our tactics as new information comes in, since there are risks both in quarantine and in not quarantining. I think everyone agrees with this and it is actually what all countries are doing. Even Italy is reevaluating their quarantine measures weekly, etc. I do agree with you that the economic risk is enormous, and I am unconvinced that my business will exist when I can work again. But at the same time there is nothing to say what we did in the face of illness before this quarantine was human or correct. I think we are too callous about "normal" annual deaths from other causes and if anything comes from this massive effort, I hope it is an awareness of these other causes of death and funding and concrete action going towards them. It's no conspiracy to recognize that investing in better health of the population by effective, concrete steps to guarantee and promote diet, exercise, etc would be a worthwhile item to invest far more resources to than we currently do.
    - s9w 7y ago
      > I would not be surprised if fatalities overall remain flat What would be enough evidence in a month or two that you would agree that this was fantastically overblown? I fear that even after this is over, the numbers will be be same same but still misrepresented by everyone to say that it was all necessary.
      - sgc 7y ago

by s9w 7y ago

sgc 7y ago

I agree we don't know yet, it could be worse or better. But I think it will take a year or two to know based on how long it takes to do a post mortem on an influenza season. Certainly failure to quarantine would be devastating so whatever the final numbers are is irrelevant. We already have overwhelmed health systems around the world, and the fatality rate would be a whole different level if that was more widespread.

s9w 7y ago
I can't follow along with that. We're in peace times.. banning people from going out of their home is something I would not have believed possible until russian tanks are at the gates of Berlin again, or the day of reckoning is coming after all. The mortality is not increased [1], the number of acute respiratory illnesses is not increased [2]. German hospitals are not overwhelmed, indeed we gave away hundreds of respirators and treat a large number of patients from neighboring countries right now. There are single cases of overwhelmed medical systems, but those are few and in places where this has happened before [3] and frankly those places have not been in great shape before. I can't see the justification for these draconian measures with so little evidence. What I do see however is a perverse dynamic between sensationalist media and power hungry politicians. It's infuriating how critics are defamed by newspapers [4] and even high-profile experts ignored [5]. The economic and social downfall from these measures will be insurmountable I fear and dwarf any risk now or even in the foreseeable future from sars-cov-2. [1] https://www.euromomo.eu/ https://www.euromomo.eu/ [2] https://image.jimcdn.com/app/cms/image/transf/none/path/s56fbd84d0e131e9b/image/i2dc7965015368c97/version/1585168811/image.png https://image.jimcdn.com/app/cms/image/transf/none/path/s56f... [3] https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/milano-terapie-intensive-collasso-l-influenza-gia-48-malati-gravi-molte-operazioni-rinviate-c9dc43a6-f5d1-11e7-9b06-fe054c3be5b2.shtml https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/mil... [4] https://www.welt.de/gesundheit/article206667595/Wolfgang-Wodarg-Warum-dieser-Mann-die-Fakten-ignorieren-will.html https://www.welt.de/gesundheit/article206667595/Wolfgang-Wod... [5] https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-a...
- sgc 7y ago
  I would not be surprised if fatalities overall remain flat due to lowered activity. That doesn't mean they would not explode without them. Germany is an outlier, not the norm as basically all statistics we have at this point indicate. I agree that Germany needs a different course of action than other countries, but I don't think that is widely applicable. Milan was not overwhelmed by influenza, that is just an Italian title, which is full of energy/exaggeration as usual. The article talks of 48 cases, which is a far cry from the 40,000+ they have in that region now. Frankly, anybody peddling that a crushing blow to the world economy is conspiracy to get a little more funding for one sector should be discredited whoever they are. That is ludicrous. There is far to much avarice in too many competing sectors, just for starters. And scientists are not that cutthroat as a group. I think you misinterpret the last link you posted. He does not advocate for doing nothing, but for quickly gathering data and changing our tactics as new information comes in, since there are risks both in quarantine and in not quarantining. I think everyone agrees with this and it is actually what all countries are doing. Even Italy is reevaluating their quarantine measures weekly, etc. I do agree with you that the economic risk is enormous, and I am unconvinced that my business will exist when I can work again. But at the same time there is nothing to say what we did in the face of illness before this quarantine was human or correct. I think we are too callous about "normal" annual deaths from other causes and if anything comes from this massive effort, I hope it is an awareness of these other causes of death and funding and concrete action going towards them. It's no conspiracy to recognize that investing in better health of the population by effective, concrete steps to guarantee and promote diet, exercise, etc would be a worthwhile item to invest far more resources to than we currently do.
  - s9w 7y ago
    > I would not be surprised if fatalities overall remain flat What would be enough evidence in a month or two that you would agree that this was fantastically overblown? I fear that even after this is over, the numbers will be be same same but still misrepresented by everyone to say that it was all necessary.
    - sgc 7y ago