3 ms·

The media should stop calling this death rate or corona deaths. These deaths are not (all) from the virus, rather occurred in people who died and had a positive

by s9w 7y ago

The media should stop calling this death rate or corona deaths. These deaths are not (all) from the virus, rather occurred in people who died and had a positive test. These things can be (and I assume are) vastly different. Just as a thought experiment: The same metric would give herpes a 100% death rate.

sgc 7y ago
Influenza related death rates are estimated after the fact from several sources of data and are about 25x higher than official influenza confirmed deaths. Everybody talks about the number of influenza related deaths as the real death rate. the chance is coronavirus related deaths are also higher, not lower, than the official count.
- s9w 7y ago
  How is that possible if every death is counted as corona death? Besides a missing test of course.
  - sgc 7y ago
    There are plenty of missing tests. Testing is limited almost everywhere. Due to the testing that is in place I don't expect the same ratio, but also, not all countries count all tested deaths as corona deaths, only a few do as far as I understand.
    - s9w 7y ago
      Fair enough. From what I make of this all we do not have strong enough data to really say this is as bad as we make it. We'll see in a month or two I guess when we can conclusively look at the total mortality.
      - sgc 7y ago
        I agree we don't know yet, it could be worse or better. But I think it will take a year or two to know based on how long it takes to do a post mortem on an influenza season. Certainly failure to quarantine would be devastating so whatever the final numbers are is irrelevant. We already have overwhelmed health systems around the world, and the fatality rate would be a whole different level if that was more widespread.
        s9w 7y ago
        I can't follow along with that. We're in peace times.. banning people from going out of their home is something I would not have believed possible until russian tanks are at the gates of Berlin again, or the day of reckoning is coming after all. The mortality is not increased [1], the number of acute respiratory illnesses is not increased [2]. German hospitals are not overwhelmed, indeed we gave away hundreds of respirators and treat a large number of patients from neighboring countries right now. There are single cases of overwhelmed medical systems, but those are few and in places where this has happened before [3] and frankly those places have not been in great shape before. I can't see the justification for these draconian measures with so little evidence. What I do see however is a perverse dynamic between sensationalist media and power hungry politicians. It's infuriating how critics are defamed by newspapers [4] and even high-profile experts ignored [5]. The economic and social downfall from these measures will be insurmountable I fear and dwarf any risk now or even in the foreseeable future from sars-cov-2. [1] https://www.euromomo.eu/ https://www.euromomo.eu/ [2] https://image.jimcdn.com/app/cms/image/transf/none/path/s56fbd84d0e131e9b/image/i2dc7965015368c97/version/1585168811/image.png https://image.jimcdn.com/app/cms/image/transf/none/path/s56f... [3] https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/milano-terapie-intensive-collasso-l-influenza-gia-48-malati-gravi-molte-operazioni-rinviate-c9dc43a6-f5d1-11e7-9b06-fe054c3be5b2.shtml https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/mil... [4] https://www.welt.de/gesundheit/article206667595/Wolfgang-Wodarg-Warum-dieser-Mann-die-Fakten-ignorieren-will.html https://www.welt.de/gesundheit/article206667595/Wolfgang-Wod... [5] https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-a...
        7y ago

by s9w 7y ago

sgc 7y ago

Influenza related death rates are estimated after the fact from several sources of data and are about 25x higher than official influenza confirmed deaths. Everybody talks about the number of influenza related deaths as the real death rate. the chance is coronavirus related deaths are also higher, not lower, than the official count.

s9w 7y ago
How is that possible if every death is counted as corona death? Besides a missing test of course.
- sgc 7y ago
  There are plenty of missing tests. Testing is limited almost everywhere. Due to the testing that is in place I don't expect the same ratio, but also, not all countries count all tested deaths as corona deaths, only a few do as far as I understand.
  - s9w 7y ago
    Fair enough. From what I make of this all we do not have strong enough data to really say this is as bad as we make it. We'll see in a month or two I guess when we can conclusively look at the total mortality.
    - sgc 7y ago
      I agree we don't know yet, it could be worse or better. But I think it will take a year or two to know based on how long it takes to do a post mortem on an influenza season. Certainly failure to quarantine would be devastating so whatever the final numbers are is irrelevant. We already have overwhelmed health systems around the world, and the fatality rate would be a whole different level if that was more widespread.
      - s9w 7y ago
        I can't follow along with that. We're in peace times.. banning people from going out of their home is something I would not have believed possible until russian tanks are at the gates of Berlin again, or the day of reckoning is coming after all. The mortality is not increased [1], the number of acute respiratory illnesses is not increased [2]. German hospitals are not overwhelmed, indeed we gave away hundreds of respirators and treat a large number of patients from neighboring countries right now. There are single cases of overwhelmed medical systems, but those are few and in places where this has happened before [3] and frankly those places have not been in great shape before. I can't see the justification for these draconian measures with so little evidence. What I do see however is a perverse dynamic between sensationalist media and power hungry politicians. It's infuriating how critics are defamed by newspapers [4] and even high-profile experts ignored [5]. The economic and social downfall from these measures will be insurmountable I fear and dwarf any risk now or even in the foreseeable future from sars-cov-2. [1] https://www.euromomo.eu/ https://www.euromomo.eu/ [2] https://image.jimcdn.com/app/cms/image/transf/none/path/s56fbd84d0e131e9b/image/i2dc7965015368c97/version/1585168811/image.png https://image.jimcdn.com/app/cms/image/transf/none/path/s56f... [3] https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/milano-terapie-intensive-collasso-l-influenza-gia-48-malati-gravi-molte-operazioni-rinviate-c9dc43a6-f5d1-11e7-9b06-fe054c3be5b2.shtml https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/mil... [4] https://www.welt.de/gesundheit/article206667595/Wolfgang-Wodarg-Warum-dieser-Mann-die-Fakten-ignorieren-will.html https://www.welt.de/gesundheit/article206667595/Wolfgang-Wod... [5] https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-a...
        7y ago