3 ms·

I think you can be contagious 18 days after exposure, isn't the incubation period around 2 weeks? And we know there are asymptomatic cases so a lack of symptoms

I think you can be contagious 18 days after exposure, isn't the incubation period around 2 weeks? And we know there are asymptomatic cases so a lack of symptoms after that period doesn't mean he isn't contagious. However if he was indeed the only employee asked to quarantine that is highly suspicious.

btilly 7y ago
The incubation period averages 5 days or so. The 2 weeks figure is because we're reasonably confident that if you haven't turned up with symptoms in 2 weeks, you aren't going to.
- nck4222 7y ago
  > reasonably confident that if you haven't turned up with symptoms in 2 weeks, you aren't going to. Visible symptoms aren't the only concern, you can be contagious without symptoms, and there are studies showing that 50% of all infections could be asymptomatic - https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180 https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.20...
  - btilly 7y ago
    Agreed. I was precisely stating the reasoning behind the number we see everywhere. I was not offering an opinion on whether that reasoning is sufficient to prevent the spread of COVID-19. That said, in an emergency it makes sense to focus on people with symptoms and tell everyone else to act like they might be exposed. In which case people who have been exposed and have symptoms should act like you want everyone else to act. Which means that if they are working in a warehouse, you want them to have protective gear to prevent them from giving it to people. Which is exactly one of the things that this strike was about.
  - JamesBarney 7y ago
    But if you've been asymptomatic for 2 weeks you are at very low risk for infecting anyone else.
jonny_eh 7y ago
The incubation period is 2 to 14 days, with 5 days being the median.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- rumanator 7y ago
  > The incubation period is 2 to 14 days, with 5 days being the median. However, there are reports of cases with an incubation period of up to 27 days. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incuba...
  - throwaway2048 7y ago
    What do you think is more likely, that after more than 2 weeks of not giving a shit about quarantining an employee, suddenly Amazon was worried about a 0.01% outlier of 27 days before symptoms showed, or that this was a retaliatory action for the worker attempting to organize a strike. I sure know what I'd be placing a large amount of money on if I was a betting man.
    - lonelappde 7y ago
      Tangent: would you make a bet on a question of fact where there is no authority you and your betting partner mutually trust to decide?
  - three_seagrass 7y ago
    >there are reports of cases with an incubation period of up to 27 days. There is only one report based on one case of a 70 year old man in Hubei province, based on contact testing, and did not rule out that he contacted it later.
  - JamesBarney 7y ago
    And this would be a total reasonable defense if they quarantine any worker who has any contact with anyone who is infected for any amount of time for 27 days. But that' isn't a policy the company follows. Also they let him work during the 2 weeks he was most likely to be contagious.

btilly 7y ago

The incubation period averages 5 days or so. The 2 weeks figure is because we're reasonably confident that if you haven't turned up with symptoms in 2 weeks, you aren't going to.

nck4222 7y ago
> reasonably confident that if you haven't turned up with symptoms in 2 weeks, you aren't going to. Visible symptoms aren't the only concern, you can be contagious without symptoms, and there are studies showing that 50% of all infections could be asymptomatic - https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180 https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.20...
- btilly 7y ago
  Agreed. I was precisely stating the reasoning behind the number we see everywhere. I was not offering an opinion on whether that reasoning is sufficient to prevent the spread of COVID-19. That said, in an emergency it makes sense to focus on people with symptoms and tell everyone else to act like they might be exposed. In which case people who have been exposed and have symptoms should act like you want everyone else to act. Which means that if they are working in a warehouse, you want them to have protective gear to prevent them from giving it to people. Which is exactly one of the things that this strike was about.
- JamesBarney 7y ago
  But if you've been asymptomatic for 2 weeks you are at very low risk for infecting anyone else.

jonny_eh 7y ago

The incubation period is 2 to 14 days, with 5 days being the median.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
rumanator 7y ago
> The incubation period is 2 to 14 days, with 5 days being the median. However, there are reports of cases with an incubation period of up to 27 days. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incuba...
- throwaway2048 7y ago
  What do you think is more likely, that after more than 2 weeks of not giving a shit about quarantining an employee, suddenly Amazon was worried about a 0.01% outlier of 27 days before symptoms showed, or that this was a retaliatory action for the worker attempting to organize a strike. I sure know what I'd be placing a large amount of money on if I was a betting man.
  - lonelappde 7y ago
    Tangent: would you make a bet on a question of fact where there is no authority you and your betting partner mutually trust to decide?
- three_seagrass 7y ago
  >there are reports of cases with an incubation period of up to 27 days. There is only one report based on one case of a 70 year old man in Hubei province, based on contact testing, and did not rule out that he contacted it later.
- JamesBarney 7y ago
  And this would be a total reasonable defense if they quarantine any worker who has any contact with anyone who is infected for any amount of time for 27 days. But that' isn't a policy the company follows. Also they let him work during the 2 weeks he was most likely to be contagious.