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So the time value of money is more or less zero now and loan rates depend much more on default risk than any opportunity cost in loaning the money. To an econom

So the time value of money is more or less zero now and loan rates depend much more on default risk than any opportunity cost in loaning the money. To an economist, the implications of that might be big, but to a regular person, it's really a small shift in possibilities. A savings account at 0% doesn't build wealth, but it didn't really do that 3 months ago at 1.5%. Personal loans at 9% aren't much better than loans at 11%. If you're not planning on making a career out of doing something finance-related, I'd say there isn't much to do differently. My one recommendation would be to hedge a little against the possibility of asset bubbles. I'm not saying bet on them (I don't know if they'll happen, nor can I predict the future and time them). Rather, I'm saying try not to be in a bad spot if they happen, because easy money definitely increases the chance we could see one. As an example, everyone in this life needs a roof over their head, so if you don't own anything real estate related, a bubble in real estate prices is a risk. A homeowner who plans to stay in their house 20 more years doesn't have to care about annual changes in the real estate market...but a renter does. So own your home if it makes sense for your situation, or consider having money in REITs, or own a rental property. Don't over-extend yourself, but try to avoid needing a tulip and not having one in 1636. Likewise, if you are relying on investments to retire, and are many years away from doing so, make sure a significant portion is in boring sp500/total stock market etfs. If your time horizon is long enough, not being able to buy stocks at a decent price is a bigger threat to your retirement than a short term drop, so make sure you have some amount of money in the market while the market isn't at all time highs. As always, it depends on your situation and I'm not qualified to tell you what to do with your finances.

mancerayder 7y ago
I just sold a home days before the pandemic hit, and consider myself very lucky. But now I have cash and I'm nervous inflation might start becoming a real problem. I'm also worried that dense American cities are going to have a huge drop in property values, desirability, and an increase in crime. I am seeing this right now, and a lot of sentiment from people with money is to never come back. It's a tough call. Is this a good time to buy property if there's a crash in six months? Will there really be asset inflation of properties if there's a commercial default explosion about to happen (hurting banks), if a lot of people are unemployed, and if cities become a little less popular? Crime is spiking in NYC right now and it's not really a priority to report it.
- this2shallPass 7y ago
  "Is this a good time to buy property if there's a crash in six months?" As an investment, or a place to live? What are the alternatives for investing? They might be better, they might not be. If the time frame you're considering is long enough, presumably yes, it's a great time. And if your time frame is even longer, the answer is it doesn't really matter :)
- bwanab 7y ago
  As a regular critic of many things and ideas American, I have to point out that in the long run, you’ve never been better off betting against America.
  - rayuela 7y ago
    I would love to see you take this and short the SP500, really put your money where your mouth is. Value is relative, and relative to the rest of the world the US is going to fare quite well. So good luck to you!
    - ls612 7y ago
      I think you are misunderstanding what he said. He's saying you have never gotten better off by betting against the United States in the long run, not that now is the time to bet against the United States.
      - tradertef 7y ago
        I read the sentence two time to get what he was saying. Figured it out based on his first part of the sentence.
  - 1-more 7y ago
    I feel gross looking at my 401k. Everything in there is a bet on the continuation of the world that led here, and that world is unjust in the extreme and needs to go. And right now I think we're on the razor's edge fo something wonderful happening. I know a few people participating in rent strikes here in NYC. Maybe this is the week where a decade happens.

mancerayder 7y ago

I just sold a home days before the pandemic hit, and consider myself very lucky. But now I have cash and I'm nervous inflation might start becoming a real problem. I'm also worried that dense American cities are going to have a huge drop in property values, desirability, and an increase in crime. I am seeing this right now, and a lot of sentiment from people with money is to never come back. It's a tough call. Is this a good time to buy property if there's a crash in six months? Will there really be asset inflation of properties if there's a commercial default explosion about to happen (hurting banks), if a lot of people are unemployed, and if cities become a little less popular? Crime is spiking in NYC right now and it's not really a priority to report it.

this2shallPass 7y ago
"Is this a good time to buy property if there's a crash in six months?" As an investment, or a place to live? What are the alternatives for investing? They might be better, they might not be. If the time frame you're considering is long enough, presumably yes, it's a great time. And if your time frame is even longer, the answer is it doesn't really matter :)
bwanab 7y ago
As a regular critic of many things and ideas American, I have to point out that in the long run, you’ve never been better off betting against America.
- rayuela 7y ago
  I would love to see you take this and short the SP500, really put your money where your mouth is. Value is relative, and relative to the rest of the world the US is going to fare quite well. So good luck to you!
  - ls612 7y ago
    I think you are misunderstanding what he said. He's saying you have never gotten better off by betting against the United States in the long run, not that now is the time to bet against the United States.
    - tradertef 7y ago
      I read the sentence two time to get what he was saying. Figured it out based on his first part of the sentence.
- 1-more 7y ago
  I feel gross looking at my 401k. Everything in there is a bet on the continuation of the world that led here, and that world is unjust in the extreme and needs to go. And right now I think we're on the razor's edge fo something wonderful happening. I know a few people participating in rent strikes here in NYC. Maybe this is the week where a decade happens.