4 ms·

Five days later it doesn't look far off: 3,178 deaths in the USA according to worldometer.

by wilgertvelinga 7y ago

xscott 7y ago
I keep checking back too... One way or another, we'll see.
xscott 7y ago
Not sure if you're still checking back, but at day 15 the US deaths are at 16k where his prediction says 25k.
- DanBC 7y ago
  That's good. The cumulative deaths are now doubling at a slower rate (something like 5.5 days?), partly because stronger social distancing measures have been put in place. But also, let's see what the CDC says next week, because those figures are laggier but more accurate. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
  - xscott 7y ago
    And how long do you predict a 5.5 day doubling period to continue?
    - DanBC 7y ago
      For clarity, I'm not predicting. 15 days ago was just after New York and California implemented shelter-in-place orders, so we'd expect to see levelling in the numbers of daily new infections starting about two weeks after (now), with levelling in daily new deaths about 10 days after that (about 20th April). Here's what other people are predicting - a peak on April 12th with over 2000 deaths in one day, and total cumulative deaths just over 23000 . https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
      - xscott 7y ago
        > For clarity, I'm not predicting. Why are you stating this now, and not when you wrote the 100,000 number above? If that wasn't a prediction, what was it?
        DanBC 7y ago
        I was reminding you that 785 deaths so far to covid-19 is nothing because the US was at the beginning of the exponential growth in deaths. What were you doing when you said "there are 785 deaths so far in the US from corona virus" and compared that to a figure of 61k flu deaths? (Leaving aside the fact that you're counting covid and flu deaths differently in your comparison -- over counting flu and under counting covid)
        xscott 7y ago
        I've looked at your other posts, and you seem like a reasonable enough person. I don't have a horrible beef with you, but in general I really despise it when people do the chicken-little doom and gloom thing and project gazillions of deaths on every latest horrible thing. Yes, awful things happen, but it's like a disgusting yearly sport for arm chair experts to exercise their righteous indignation at all of us while preaching how we're all going to die from Africanized bees, Zika, H1N1, whatever. Usually it's mixed with some other two-faced political agenda. You didn't really do that, but maybe you'll forgive me for thinking your exercise in exponential growth fell into the same category. These predictions are always shown to be exaggerated after the fact, and then the doomsayer gets to say something like, "Yeah, if it weren't for all of us telling you" or "You're ungrateful for disregarding all the hard work of everyone who came together to blah blah". There's no accountability for, or end to, the bullshit. Moreover, while it's a morbid task, rational adults should be able to ask whether the costs we've paid dealing with this corona virus are worth it. At 758 deaths, and even 21 days later at 26,300 deaths, we've wrecked the lives of millions of people in the US. It's hard to find stats, but tens of millions of people are now unemployed, and many of their lives suck because of it. Doing arithmetic on suffering and death is distasteful, but there is some point where you wouldn't ruin N people's lives to save just 1 person from dying. Particularly when some of those N people are going to commit suicide in response etc... I won't be making any predictions, but other really bad things can happen when you've got a huge number of people who can't afford food or rent. Two years ago, approximately 61,000 people died from the flu in the US and we didn't do anything more than make flu shots more available. As for over vs under counting, I hope you're not doing that pedantic "pneumonia isn't the flu" thing. The point is that 150,000 people around the world die every DAY from something, and 10,000 - 100,000 people in the US die every year from something with symptoms close to corona virus.

Five days later it doesn't look far off: 3,178 deaths in the USA according to worldometer.

xscott 7y ago

I keep checking back too... One way or another, we'll see.

xscott 7y ago

Not sure if you're still checking back, but at day 15 the US deaths are at 16k where his prediction says 25k.

DanBC 7y ago
That's good. The cumulative deaths are now doubling at a slower rate (something like 5.5 days?), partly because stronger social distancing measures have been put in place. But also, let's see what the CDC says next week, because those figures are laggier but more accurate. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
- xscott 7y ago
  And how long do you predict a 5.5 day doubling period to continue?
  - DanBC 7y ago
    For clarity, I'm not predicting. 15 days ago was just after New York and California implemented shelter-in-place orders, so we'd expect to see levelling in the numbers of daily new infections starting about two weeks after (now), with levelling in daily new deaths about 10 days after that (about 20th April). Here's what other people are predicting - a peak on April 12th with over 2000 deaths in one day, and total cumulative deaths just over 23000 . https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
    - xscott 7y ago
      > For clarity, I'm not predicting. Why are you stating this now, and not when you wrote the 100,000 number above? If that wasn't a prediction, what was it?
      - DanBC 7y ago
        I was reminding you that 785 deaths so far to covid-19 is nothing because the US was at the beginning of the exponential growth in deaths. What were you doing when you said "there are 785 deaths so far in the US from corona virus" and compared that to a figure of 61k flu deaths? (Leaving aside the fact that you're counting covid and flu deaths differently in your comparison -- over counting flu and under counting covid)
        xscott 7y ago
        I've looked at your other posts, and you seem like a reasonable enough person. I don't have a horrible beef with you, but in general I really despise it when people do the chicken-little doom and gloom thing and project gazillions of deaths on every latest horrible thing. Yes, awful things happen, but it's like a disgusting yearly sport for arm chair experts to exercise their righteous indignation at all of us while preaching how we're all going to die from Africanized bees, Zika, H1N1, whatever. Usually it's mixed with some other two-faced political agenda. You didn't really do that, but maybe you'll forgive me for thinking your exercise in exponential growth fell into the same category. These predictions are always shown to be exaggerated after the fact, and then the doomsayer gets to say something like, "Yeah, if it weren't for all of us telling you" or "You're ungrateful for disregarding all the hard work of everyone who came together to blah blah". There's no accountability for, or end to, the bullshit. Moreover, while it's a morbid task, rational adults should be able to ask whether the costs we've paid dealing with this corona virus are worth it. At 758 deaths, and even 21 days later at 26,300 deaths, we've wrecked the lives of millions of people in the US. It's hard to find stats, but tens of millions of people are now unemployed, and many of their lives suck because of it. Doing arithmetic on suffering and death is distasteful, but there is some point where you wouldn't ruin N people's lives to save just 1 person from dying. Particularly when some of those N people are going to commit suicide in response etc... I won't be making any predictions, but other really bad things can happen when you've got a huge number of people who can't afford food or rent. Two years ago, approximately 61,000 people died from the flu in the US and we didn't do anything more than make flu shots more available. As for over vs under counting, I hope you're not doing that pedantic "pneumonia isn't the flu" thing. The point is that 150,000 people around the world die every DAY from something, and 10,000 - 100,000 people in the US die every year from something with symptoms close to corona virus.