3 ms·
I would actually argue that all the air has been sucked out of that market. There won't be a "next Facebook" -- Facebook has enough influence these days to kill
by wayoutthere 7y ago
I would actually argue that all the air has been sucked out of that market. There won't be a "next Facebook" -- Facebook has enough influence these days to kill companies without buying them. There might be a "next Instagram", but it won't go through the traditional VC process (see also TikTok, which has a blank check because it is a useful intelligence gathering tool).
A big factor here is that "going viral" is no longer a thing that happens organically. Anything that "goes viral" today simply had a good social / native marketing campaign. There is a lot less risk involved in the business model because the network effects have largely settled -- which means there is less upside for new businesses. The "hockey stick" effect doesn't really happen anymore.
There is plenty of room out there for $0.5-2B companies in the B2B space though. That's mostly where VC is focusing because those businesses leverage the business contacts of the VCs, so it works well with their "cash + connections" model.
- netcan 7y agoFacebook was the next Google, Google the next Microsoft. Analogies are never perfect, but that's what I meant. The next big thing, in terms of cash returns to early/mid investors. For the purposes of this argument "next Twitter/Instagram/LinkedIn/etc" work too. WeWork bought meetup for $150m. They sold it for less. Facebook is worth thousands of times more. My point is that considering the price of meetup, the odds of turning it into something worth 10x or 100X bigger create a risk/reward reality that is decisive. That's all. Your bet on "$0.5-2B companies in the B2B space," works fine in this context.