This is looking ahead to next quarter. Optimistic estimates of when things will open back up are looking like "May or June," so I don't think it's plausible to

This is looking ahead to next quarter. Optimistic estimates of when things will open back up are looking like "May or June," so I don't think it's plausible to believe in a total recovery by the end of Q2. Well, a totally naive model would be a uniform prior bounded between 0 and 1. The blog post says that they think it'll be between 0.1 and 0.4. That's more narrow than the naive model, but it's still pretty large error bars. I don't think they have spoken with much more certainty than is justified.