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> I sent a quick reply two minutes later: > For now, I think the risk from the ordinary flu is much much greater! But worth watching to see if it becomes a re
by bJGVygG7MQVF8c 7y ago
> I sent a quick reply two minutes later:
> For now, I think the risk from the ordinary flu is much much greater! But worth watching to see if it becomes a real pandemic.
Nope. Lost all credibility right there. Do not pass GO, do not collect 2 minutes of attention. Sorry.
Oh, you've learned something from the error and you've updated your priors? Great, good for you. You're still unreliable.
- AlexMennen 7y agoThis seems overly harsh. Few people took COVID-19 seriously on Feb 4, so this standard makes almost everyone have no credibility, including people who don't admit to the error. All humans are unreliable.
- defen 7y agoHere's a blog post from February 6 by Greg Cochran, one of the people mentioned. Looks pretty good in retrospect https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/02/06/strategy-not-the-flu/ https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/02/06/strategy-not-the-f...
- bJGVygG7MQVF8c 7y ago> Few people took COVID-19 seriously on Feb 4 Plenty who were paying attention took it seriously