3 ms·

The math. We had the fatality rate and r0. As soon as it was obvious that it spread out of control on China, it was just a matter of time. You didn’t need to be

• zozbot234 7y ago
  The thing is, it didn't quite spread out of control on China. There were a heck of a lot of cases in Wuhan and Hubei, and markedly fewer cases elsewhere. We might guess that this is perhaps just a side-effect of exponential dynamics, but I'm not quite sure about that.
  • makomk 7y ago
    At a guess, this is perhaps a consequence of the fact that the entire rest of China has been treating everyone from Hubei like a plague carrier since January regardless of whether they've even been there in years. Any country that didn't, at the very least, quarantine people who'd been in Hubei plus their close contacts back then probably can't expect the same results, and even that plus contract tracing and testing plus social distancing only seems to hve delayed the inevitable.
• elchief 7y ago
  Which math to believe, the 4.8% CFR, or the 19% deaths/completed?