Looking back at my thinking at the same time I am also ashamed at how slow I was to realize it. I also trusted in our institutions. I knew what lengths that t

Looking back at my thinking at the same time I am also ashamed at how slow I was to realize it. I also trusted in our institutions. I knew what lengths that they went to in SARS. I understood how much thought has gone into public health. I found articles explaining why one would rationally ration available tests. Even when it was clear to me that we were in for a pandemic and millions would die, I completely failed to predict that we'd be willing to put Western countries in lockdown - or that lockdown would be as effective as it has been. I probably came to the right conclusion before Scott did. But still the only thing that I did right with my knowledge was to tell my wife to buy a put on the DOW back when it was still rising.