3 ms·

Ask HN: Won’t emergency ventilator production destroy the ventilator business?

3 points by Kaibeezy 7y ago

Kaibeezy 7y ago
Who’s going to need to buy a ventilator after this is over? There might be a small market for technical advancements.
- united893 7y ago
  Good job. You solved the riddle. Let's stop production now.
  - Kaibeezy 7y ago
    Loo roll manufacturers are going to have several thin months while consumers work through their backlog. Demand will be wiped out.
    - dzolvd 7y ago
      that was a tearable pun if intentional.
    - generalpass 7y ago
      > Loo roll manufacturers are going to have several thin months while consumers work through their backlog. Demand will be wiped out. But consumer behavior will shift to keeping more inventory on-hand.
      - Zenst 7y ago
        Valid point and yes, will see people buffer more in general. However once that is settled, the sales/usage will level as people not consuming more.
        generalpass 7y ago
        > Valid point and yes, will see people buffer more in general. However once that is settled, the sales/usage will level as people not consuming more. Depending on how the sentence is read, people may put more inventory on their hands (i.e., they use a higher quantity because they never run low, which is when people tend to conserve).
        Zenst 7y ago
        You do raise an fairpoint, and certainly has me curious if sewage treatment plants will see more toilet roll in the processing. Though things like tinned food, was what got me thinking this and whilst many may have in the past the odd tin of soup, I dare say those same people will after this, have a larger buffer of such items - for those just in case and the mentality and shopping habits will change for many for a while after this event.
        generalpass 7y ago
        > You do raise an fairpoint, and certainly has me curious if sewage treatment plants will see more toilet roll in the processing. > Though things like tinned food, was what got me thinking this and whilst many may have in the past the odd tin of soup, I dare say those same people will after this, have a larger buffer of such items - for those just in case and the mentality and shopping habits will change for many for a while after this event. It may be difficult to determine actual origin of loads at sewage treatment facilities due to shifting patterns of population activity. Previously, some percentage of people were using the commodes of their employers and other businesses, such as restaurants, at some relatively constant rate across populations, but are now almost exclusively using their homes. The larger immediate and near-term impact of the increase in dispersed consumer inventory may be the yet further depressed spending in other sectors. I'm not sure what an economy comprised exclusively of people buying non-perishable foods, toilet paper, bottled water, and Netfix looks like, but I fear we are about to find out.
mtmail 7y ago
It's one of many very sophisticated product lines. The companies will shift their focus and still innovate. From what I've read largest manufacturer is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr%C3%A4gerwerk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr%C3%A4gerwerk
tropo 7y ago
Perhaps so, but: The new ventilators might not last. They might be banned due to low quality after the emergency passes. Some will be damaged by use. Parts might become unavailable. New companies may enter the ventilator business. We still have the ventilator business, even if the companies change. The demand might remain high. The disease could stick around. This isn't the first respiratory disease to start spreading right next to a Chinese biohazard lab, and likely won't be the last.
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  In one news article I read that a hospital was using very old ventilators that had few bells and whistles. Because despite that they do the job. I'd assume that ventilators produced in an emergency would be as simple as possible.
strangattractor 7y ago
hopefully
aurizon 7y ago
A great deal of innovation will occur by smart minds released from the box and they will publish many design innovations which will act to bypass the vertical price controlled and patented etc towers of the old makers. All this will be released via open source methods anda general constructive frenzy will occur = more and better as well as cheaper ventilators. This is good, very good.

3 points by Kaibeezy 7y ago

Kaibeezy 7y ago

Who’s going to need to buy a ventilator after this is over? There might be a small market for technical advancements.

united893 7y ago
Good job. You solved the riddle. Let's stop production now.
- Kaibeezy 7y ago
  Loo roll manufacturers are going to have several thin months while consumers work through their backlog. Demand will be wiped out.
  - dzolvd 7y ago
    that was a tearable pun if intentional.
  - generalpass 7y ago
    > Loo roll manufacturers are going to have several thin months while consumers work through their backlog. Demand will be wiped out. But consumer behavior will shift to keeping more inventory on-hand.
    - Zenst 7y ago
      Valid point and yes, will see people buffer more in general. However once that is settled, the sales/usage will level as people not consuming more.
      - generalpass 7y ago
        > Valid point and yes, will see people buffer more in general. However once that is settled, the sales/usage will level as people not consuming more. Depending on how the sentence is read, people may put more inventory on their hands (i.e., they use a higher quantity because they never run low, which is when people tend to conserve).
        Zenst 7y ago
        You do raise an fairpoint, and certainly has me curious if sewage treatment plants will see more toilet roll in the processing. Though things like tinned food, was what got me thinking this and whilst many may have in the past the odd tin of soup, I dare say those same people will after this, have a larger buffer of such items - for those just in case and the mentality and shopping habits will change for many for a while after this event.
        generalpass 7y ago
        > You do raise an fairpoint, and certainly has me curious if sewage treatment plants will see more toilet roll in the processing. > Though things like tinned food, was what got me thinking this and whilst many may have in the past the odd tin of soup, I dare say those same people will after this, have a larger buffer of such items - for those just in case and the mentality and shopping habits will change for many for a while after this event. It may be difficult to determine actual origin of loads at sewage treatment facilities due to shifting patterns of population activity. Previously, some percentage of people were using the commodes of their employers and other businesses, such as restaurants, at some relatively constant rate across populations, but are now almost exclusively using their homes. The larger immediate and near-term impact of the increase in dispersed consumer inventory may be the yet further depressed spending in other sectors. I'm not sure what an economy comprised exclusively of people buying non-perishable foods, toilet paper, bottled water, and Netfix looks like, but I fear we are about to find out.

mtmail 7y ago

It's one of many very sophisticated product lines. The companies will shift their focus and still innovate. From what I've read largest manufacturer is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr%C3%A4gerwerk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr%C3%A4gerwerk

tropo 7y ago

Perhaps so, but: The new ventilators might not last. They might be banned due to low quality after the emergency passes. Some will be damaged by use. Parts might become unavailable. New companies may enter the ventilator business. We still have the ventilator business, even if the companies change. The demand might remain high. The disease could stick around. This isn't the first respiratory disease to start spreading right next to a Chinese biohazard lab, and likely won't be the last.

Gibbon1 7y ago
In one news article I read that a hospital was using very old ventilators that had few bells and whistles. Because despite that they do the job. I'd assume that ventilators produced in an emergency would be as simple as possible.

strangattractor 7y ago

hopefully

aurizon 7y ago

A great deal of innovation will occur by smart minds released from the box and they will publish many design innovations which will act to bypass the vertical price controlled and patented etc towers of the old makers. All this will be released via open source methods anda general constructive frenzy will occur = more and better as well as cheaper ventilators. This is good, very good.