4 ms·

"Temporary pause" is an incredibly naive way to describe what's happening. Millions of people (and businesses) will miss their rent/mortgage payments that are d

"Temporary pause" is an incredibly naive way to describe what's happening. Millions of people (and businesses) will miss their rent/mortgage payments that are due Wednesday. Some not-insignificant portion of those missed rent payments will result in more mortgage payments being missed. Many who've lost their jobs and rack up debt during this won't be able to find a job when the economy is able to be spun back up. It seems obvious that there's going to be terrible cascading effects.

m0zg 7y ago
And millions of people will go back to work in June. And millions of people and businesses will receive government support in the interim.
- icedchai 7y ago
  I doubt it. June, 2021, maybe? No way things are back to normal by this June. This is just beginning.
  - tathougies 7y ago
    Nope. Most people will say screw it and let everyone die by the end of May. I don't think it's necessarily right, but most people have no discipline. We already see it in China and Italy.
    - icedchai 7y ago
      It could happen... but that won't make things go back to normal. People will be keep getting sick (and dying.) Others won't go out due to fear or quarantines. It will be a slow spiral downward.
- AaronFriel 7y ago
  That's assuming: * The correlated decline in productivity, the gaps in mortgage and rent payments, and so on do not result in our financial system breaking in surprising ways, like how a small increase in mortgage default rates did with synthetic collateralized debt obligations in 2007-2008. An increase in fixed rate mortgage defaults from 5% to 10% contributed significantly to the largest recession in nearly a century. I don't think anyone can say with certainty that nothing like this lurks in our financial system, this is like a bug in a program which requires dozens of different code paths to all enter into an invalid state simultaneously, and only then do you see the result. * That we can actually restore everything to normal by June with the development of a cheap and easy to administer vaccine, which seems extremely unlikely to materialize in only 2 months.
  - tathougies 7y ago
    Nah. Most people are going to forgive debts in the interrim. It only makes sense. > like how a small increase in mortgage default rates did with synthetic collateralized debt obligations in 2007-2008. What you fail to mention is that most mortgages in 07 and 08 were perfectly fine and you could find alternate home owners willing to actually pay. This is completely different. The government has shut down the economy. It's not like there are a lot of people you could sell a home too. Most debt collectors are going to let the debt go and not demand it, realising they cannot find any alternative. > * That we can actually restore everything to normal by June with the development of a cheap and easy to administer vaccine, which seems extremely unlikely to materialize in only 2 months. Unlikely that there is a vaccine, but we won't need it. The country has gone through much worse pandemics, and they typically do not cause great economic harm. In fact, they often lead to boom timse.
    - AaronFriel 7y ago
      > Most people are going to forgive debts in the interrim > Most debt collectors are going to let the debt go and not demand it, I find it hard to believe you're familiar with debt collection in the United States! > Unlikely that there is a vaccine, but we won't need it. The country has gone through much worse pandemics, If we're willing to just let lots of people die, then sure, we "won't need it". The case fatality rate (CFR) depends on ventilator and ICU capacity. We'll have a better estimate for US case fatality rates due to the outbreak in New York soon, but so far it seems to be that even though deaths lag cases, deaths have been roughly 2% of confirmed cases for a few weeks. If that holds up as confirmed cases rise into the millions, that would put this on par with the 1918 pandemic. If it doesn't, New York will give us a better idea of the CFR in a modern American city's medical system.
      - tathougies 7y ago
        > with the 1918 pandemic which we got through without state-wide lockdowns.
        7y ago

m0zg 7y ago

And millions of people will go back to work in June. And millions of people and businesses will receive government support in the interim.

icedchai 7y ago
I doubt it. June, 2021, maybe? No way things are back to normal by this June. This is just beginning.
- tathougies 7y ago
  Nope. Most people will say screw it and let everyone die by the end of May. I don't think it's necessarily right, but most people have no discipline. We already see it in China and Italy.
  - icedchai 7y ago
    It could happen... but that won't make things go back to normal. People will be keep getting sick (and dying.) Others won't go out due to fear or quarantines. It will be a slow spiral downward.
AaronFriel 7y ago
That's assuming: * The correlated decline in productivity, the gaps in mortgage and rent payments, and so on do not result in our financial system breaking in surprising ways, like how a small increase in mortgage default rates did with synthetic collateralized debt obligations in 2007-2008. An increase in fixed rate mortgage defaults from 5% to 10% contributed significantly to the largest recession in nearly a century. I don't think anyone can say with certainty that nothing like this lurks in our financial system, this is like a bug in a program which requires dozens of different code paths to all enter into an invalid state simultaneously, and only then do you see the result. * That we can actually restore everything to normal by June with the development of a cheap and easy to administer vaccine, which seems extremely unlikely to materialize in only 2 months.
- tathougies 7y ago
  Nah. Most people are going to forgive debts in the interrim. It only makes sense. > like how a small increase in mortgage default rates did with synthetic collateralized debt obligations in 2007-2008. What you fail to mention is that most mortgages in 07 and 08 were perfectly fine and you could find alternate home owners willing to actually pay. This is completely different. The government has shut down the economy. It's not like there are a lot of people you could sell a home too. Most debt collectors are going to let the debt go and not demand it, realising they cannot find any alternative. > * That we can actually restore everything to normal by June with the development of a cheap and easy to administer vaccine, which seems extremely unlikely to materialize in only 2 months. Unlikely that there is a vaccine, but we won't need it. The country has gone through much worse pandemics, and they typically do not cause great economic harm. In fact, they often lead to boom timse.
  - AaronFriel 7y ago
    > Most people are going to forgive debts in the interrim > Most debt collectors are going to let the debt go and not demand it, I find it hard to believe you're familiar with debt collection in the United States! > Unlikely that there is a vaccine, but we won't need it. The country has gone through much worse pandemics, If we're willing to just let lots of people die, then sure, we "won't need it". The case fatality rate (CFR) depends on ventilator and ICU capacity. We'll have a better estimate for US case fatality rates due to the outbreak in New York soon, but so far it seems to be that even though deaths lag cases, deaths have been roughly 2% of confirmed cases for a few weeks. If that holds up as confirmed cases rise into the millions, that would put this on par with the 1918 pandemic. If it doesn't, New York will give us a better idea of the CFR in a modern American city's medical system.
    - tathougies 7y ago
      > with the 1918 pandemic which we got through without state-wide lockdowns.
      - 7y ago