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>If a lot of people do that, we’ll suddenly need a lot of waiters back. And then they’ll have money. By that time every restaurant will have had all its fresh

>If a lot of people do that, we’ll suddenly need a lot of waiters back. And then they’ll have money. By that time every restaurant will have had all its fresh food expire and will need to predict when the demand for it will return. If they do not do this accurately, they risk wasted capital that they'll need for when the demand does come back. They'll have had to been paying rent or mortgage on the property they currently occupy, with only the revenue they're able to make on take outs. Depending on the structure, I predict most restaurants won't survive this. Any restaurant with a dining room is toast. The world will look different after the crisis. The world will look different after the first of the very next month.

jedberg 7y ago
> They'll have had to been paying rent or mortgage on the property they currently occupy, with only the revenue they're able to make on take outs. Everyone keeps assuming landlords aren't people. If you own a commercial building with say six storefronts, once the SIP lifts, you have two choices: Demand immediate back rent from all your tenants and then evict them all, leaving a completely empty building, or work with them so they can remain open and at least give you partial rent for a while until they can pay you back. Yes, the government will need to step in and declare mortgages were on hold and no back payment is necessary, but that's already in the works. I think landlords are smart enough not to just evict everyone as soon as they can. They know that no one will come and take that spot. It's better to have partial rent than none at all.
- omegaworks 7y ago
  >give you partial rent for a while until they can pay you back And this is the happy choice! Existing businesses will be saddled with the debt of operating through the crisis. New businesses without that debt will have an advantage. When bankruptcy is logistically more advantageous than debt service, bankruptcy naturally follows. The world will look different after the crisis.
  - greedo 7y ago
    This is absolutely correct. If all we're going to do is defer expenses, then this will ruin small businesses. We might see a wave of entrepreneurs opening up restaurants at bargain rents, but I don't know that the demand will be able to support them. Existing restaurants are toast, unless they get assistance (not zero loans) to keep running. Zero interest loans still mean debt.

jedberg 7y ago

> They'll have had to been paying rent or mortgage on the property they currently occupy, with only the revenue they're able to make on take outs. Everyone keeps assuming landlords aren't people. If you own a commercial building with say six storefronts, once the SIP lifts, you have two choices: Demand immediate back rent from all your tenants and then evict them all, leaving a completely empty building, or work with them so they can remain open and at least give you partial rent for a while until they can pay you back. Yes, the government will need to step in and declare mortgages were on hold and no back payment is necessary, but that's already in the works. I think landlords are smart enough not to just evict everyone as soon as they can. They know that no one will come and take that spot. It's better to have partial rent than none at all.

omegaworks 7y ago
>give you partial rent for a while until they can pay you back And this is the happy choice! Existing businesses will be saddled with the debt of operating through the crisis. New businesses without that debt will have an advantage. When bankruptcy is logistically more advantageous than debt service, bankruptcy naturally follows. The world will look different after the crisis.
- greedo 7y ago
  This is absolutely correct. If all we're going to do is defer expenses, then this will ruin small businesses. We might see a wave of entrepreneurs opening up restaurants at bargain rents, but I don't know that the demand will be able to support them. Existing restaurants are toast, unless they get assistance (not zero loans) to keep running. Zero interest loans still mean debt.