3 ms·
> I know a lot of my friends who still have jobs are talking about going out every night when the quarantine lifts so they don’t have to cook. Most of the dema
by pulisse 7y ago
> I know a lot of my friends who still have jobs are talking about going out every night when the quarantine lifts so they don’t have to cook.
Most of the demand shortfall we're going to experience in the coming months will come from people being out of work, not from their being quarantined. That doesn't create pent up consumption that can unleashed at a later point in time.
- jedberg 7y agoRight by my point is that those jobs didn't go away, they're just temporarily suspended. We have no idea how many of those jobs will come right back when shelter-in-place is lifted. It's not a "normal" downturn.
- tathougies 7y agoMost businesses have said they will rehire the moment they are allowed to operate again. Why do you think people will be out of work?
- jeremyjh 7y agoA lot of small businesses will no longer exist after this is over. That is one reason. But it seems unlikely we'll be able to exit this without deep structural damage that takes a significant amount of time to repair; there are negative feedback mechanisms that are difficult to overcome even with well-targeted stimulus. The most basic is that unemployment reduces consumer demand which reduces employment demand. It doesn't just go away some sunny day in June either, the slack demand directly due to the virus is likely to be with us for many, many more months to come.