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Which is why the "model" is 100% certified organic horseshit. If they want to tell me that a temporary pause in the roaring economy is worse than the largest sy

by m0zg 7y ago

Which is why the "model" is 100% certified organic horseshit. If they want to tell me that a temporary pause in the roaring economy is worse than the largest systemic collapse to ever happen to it, I say "GTFO".

take_a_breath 7y ago
When was the economy “roaring”? I saw asset prices roaring, but not wages or GDP.
TheCowboy 7y ago
Real damage is happening. It's nothing short of hugely multiple swearwords level wrong if you think this is a mere temporary pause where everyone can pick back up where we left off.
vkou 7y ago
The only thing that was roaring about the economy was the printing press called QE. It's been turned back on, which is why the market is bullish at the moment.
itsgrimetime 7y ago
"Temporary pause" is an incredibly naive way to describe what's happening. Millions of people (and businesses) will miss their rent/mortgage payments that are due Wednesday. Some not-insignificant portion of those missed rent payments will result in more mortgage payments being missed. Many who've lost their jobs and rack up debt during this won't be able to find a job when the economy is able to be spun back up. It seems obvious that there's going to be terrible cascading effects.
- m0zg 7y ago
  And millions of people will go back to work in June. And millions of people and businesses will receive government support in the interim.
  - icedchai 7y ago
    I doubt it. June, 2021, maybe? No way things are back to normal by this June. This is just beginning.
    - tathougies 7y ago
      Nope. Most people will say screw it and let everyone die by the end of May. I don't think it's necessarily right, but most people have no discipline. We already see it in China and Italy.
      - icedchai 7y ago
        It could happen... but that won't make things go back to normal. People will be keep getting sick (and dying.) Others won't go out due to fear or quarantines. It will be a slow spiral downward.
  - AaronFriel 7y ago
    That's assuming: * The correlated decline in productivity, the gaps in mortgage and rent payments, and so on do not result in our financial system breaking in surprising ways, like how a small increase in mortgage default rates did with synthetic collateralized debt obligations in 2007-2008. An increase in fixed rate mortgage defaults from 5% to 10% contributed significantly to the largest recession in nearly a century. I don't think anyone can say with certainty that nothing like this lurks in our financial system, this is like a bug in a program which requires dozens of different code paths to all enter into an invalid state simultaneously, and only then do you see the result. * That we can actually restore everything to normal by June with the development of a cheap and easy to administer vaccine, which seems extremely unlikely to materialize in only 2 months.
    - tathougies 7y ago
      Nah. Most people are going to forgive debts in the interrim. It only makes sense. > like how a small increase in mortgage default rates did with synthetic collateralized debt obligations in 2007-2008. What you fail to mention is that most mortgages in 07 and 08 were perfectly fine and you could find alternate home owners willing to actually pay. This is completely different. The government has shut down the economy. It's not like there are a lot of people you could sell a home too. Most debt collectors are going to let the debt go and not demand it, realising they cannot find any alternative. > * That we can actually restore everything to normal by June with the development of a cheap and easy to administer vaccine, which seems extremely unlikely to materialize in only 2 months. Unlikely that there is a vaccine, but we won't need it. The country has gone through much worse pandemics, and they typically do not cause great economic harm. In fact, they often lead to boom timse.
tempestn 7y ago
It's possible the peak could be higher but much less sustained.
tathougies 7y ago
Well of course it is. The market will rarely screw itself over so much that businesses are forced to stop at once. If anything, this 'recession' shows the scary power of the government, and of authoritarianism. With the stroke of a pen, the government of the United States and its states can inflict economic damage worse than any market-based recession. That is truly scary. Of course, in this case, this temporary suspension is probably worth it, but it is an easy counter argument the next time someone attempts to explain why government economic control would lead to fewer recessions and depressions than the market.

by m0zg 7y ago

take_a_breath 7y ago

When was the economy “roaring”? I saw asset prices roaring, but not wages or GDP.

TheCowboy 7y ago

Real damage is happening. It's nothing short of hugely multiple swearwords level wrong if you think this is a mere temporary pause where everyone can pick back up where we left off.

vkou 7y ago

The only thing that was roaring about the economy was the printing press called QE. It's been turned back on, which is why the market is bullish at the moment.

itsgrimetime 7y ago

"Temporary pause" is an incredibly naive way to describe what's happening. Millions of people (and businesses) will miss their rent/mortgage payments that are due Wednesday. Some not-insignificant portion of those missed rent payments will result in more mortgage payments being missed. Many who've lost their jobs and rack up debt during this won't be able to find a job when the economy is able to be spun back up. It seems obvious that there's going to be terrible cascading effects.

m0zg 7y ago
And millions of people will go back to work in June. And millions of people and businesses will receive government support in the interim.
- icedchai 7y ago
  I doubt it. June, 2021, maybe? No way things are back to normal by this June. This is just beginning.
  - tathougies 7y ago
    Nope. Most people will say screw it and let everyone die by the end of May. I don't think it's necessarily right, but most people have no discipline. We already see it in China and Italy.
    - icedchai 7y ago
      It could happen... but that won't make things go back to normal. People will be keep getting sick (and dying.) Others won't go out due to fear or quarantines. It will be a slow spiral downward.
- AaronFriel 7y ago
  That's assuming: * The correlated decline in productivity, the gaps in mortgage and rent payments, and so on do not result in our financial system breaking in surprising ways, like how a small increase in mortgage default rates did with synthetic collateralized debt obligations in 2007-2008. An increase in fixed rate mortgage defaults from 5% to 10% contributed significantly to the largest recession in nearly a century. I don't think anyone can say with certainty that nothing like this lurks in our financial system, this is like a bug in a program which requires dozens of different code paths to all enter into an invalid state simultaneously, and only then do you see the result. * That we can actually restore everything to normal by June with the development of a cheap and easy to administer vaccine, which seems extremely unlikely to materialize in only 2 months.
  - tathougies 7y ago
    Nah. Most people are going to forgive debts in the interrim. It only makes sense. > like how a small increase in mortgage default rates did with synthetic collateralized debt obligations in 2007-2008. What you fail to mention is that most mortgages in 07 and 08 were perfectly fine and you could find alternate home owners willing to actually pay. This is completely different. The government has shut down the economy. It's not like there are a lot of people you could sell a home too. Most debt collectors are going to let the debt go and not demand it, realising they cannot find any alternative. > * That we can actually restore everything to normal by June with the development of a cheap and easy to administer vaccine, which seems extremely unlikely to materialize in only 2 months. Unlikely that there is a vaccine, but we won't need it. The country has gone through much worse pandemics, and they typically do not cause great economic harm. In fact, they often lead to boom timse.

tempestn 7y ago

It's possible the peak could be higher but much less sustained.

tathougies 7y ago

Well of course it is. The market will rarely screw itself over so much that businesses are forced to stop at once. If anything, this 'recession' shows the scary power of the government, and of authoritarianism. With the stroke of a pen, the government of the United States and its states can inflict economic damage worse than any market-based recession. That is truly scary. Of course, in this case, this temporary suspension is probably worth it, but it is an easy counter argument the next time someone attempts to explain why government economic control would lead to fewer recessions and depressions than the market.