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I'm talking generally about all developed countries (I know what in many developing countries a lockdown will simply be impossible). I certainly don't think th

I'm talking generally about all developed countries (I know what in many developing countries a lockdown will simply be impossible). I certainly don't think the US has done everything it can. Quite the contrary - it's no surprise to me at all that it is now top of the leaderboard in recorded cases. The US had to go to at least the extremes of Italy, and it didn't, so you'll end up with many more deaths than you would otherwise have had. The US could just have looked at what was actually happening in Europe to establish what it needed to do. Arguing over the numbers is exactly what caused the inaction in the first place.

Lewton 7y ago
Ok, then let's talk Europe. Denmark has been in a early and disciplined lockdown for 3 weeks. The amount of deaths per day seem to have stabilized. The Hospitals are not overrun When should Denmark end the lockdown? (And if Denmark had a random sampling from two weeks ago, and one from today, would they be better positioned to know when to end the lockdown or not?)
- phaemon 7y ago
  No, that's completely wrong. Denmark only had its first death 2 weeks ago (a single death) and one the following day. Over the last 3 days, it's had 31 deaths. The number of active cases is still shooting up. It's very early days for Denmark and things will get a lot worse before it gets better. I've no idea why you think anything has stabilised there. Look at the graphs: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ Is it perhaps the change in daily new cases that's thrown you? Many countries have that drop and increase again as they change the way they're testing.
  - Lewton 7y ago
    ... Sigh. Ok then the cases in Denmark hasn't stabilized. How in the world does that change my point? (but number of daily deaths have been linear for a week now, I don't know why you'd think that's not stable, but you're just completely proving my point by disagreeing with how stable the situation is in Denmark, how do you ACTUALLY know that it's not?)
    - phaemon 7y ago
      Number of daily deaths for the last 3 days, as I mentioned before, was 31. The 3 days before that, 18. The 3 days before that 15. That is clearly increasing. I know it's not from the statistics. Note I don't need to know the exact percentage of asymptomatic cases for this, or to know the correct course of action. Which was my point to start with. Perhaps you lost track of it?
      - vonmoltke 7y ago
        So, what is it going to be in 3 days? 6 days? 9 days? Your view on the situation is purely reactionary. Having population-level data allows public health officials to proactively take steps to mitigate the current crisis and anticipate how much surge capacity they will actually need. Right now they can't do that, because even testing of symptomatic people is bottlenecked. Being reactionary to a crisis like this is a very bad idea and will lead to it being worse than it needs to be.
        watwut 7y ago
        I think that fear that people are on fishing expedition to find any numbers that could be twisted as optimistic and then use them for politics is not reactionary paranoia. That is exactly what was and is going on last weeks. And phaemon is completely correct in saying that US has not done everything it can. It was the opposite - spinning situation in absurdly optimistic way until it became impossible to ignore.

Lewton 7y ago

Ok, then let's talk Europe. Denmark has been in a early and disciplined lockdown for 3 weeks. The amount of deaths per day seem to have stabilized. The Hospitals are not overrun When should Denmark end the lockdown? (And if Denmark had a random sampling from two weeks ago, and one from today, would they be better positioned to know when to end the lockdown or not?)

phaemon 7y ago
No, that's completely wrong. Denmark only had its first death 2 weeks ago (a single death) and one the following day. Over the last 3 days, it's had 31 deaths. The number of active cases is still shooting up. It's very early days for Denmark and things will get a lot worse before it gets better. I've no idea why you think anything has stabilised there. Look at the graphs: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ Is it perhaps the change in daily new cases that's thrown you? Many countries have that drop and increase again as they change the way they're testing.
- Lewton 7y ago
  ... Sigh. Ok then the cases in Denmark hasn't stabilized. How in the world does that change my point? (but number of daily deaths have been linear for a week now, I don't know why you'd think that's not stable, but you're just completely proving my point by disagreeing with how stable the situation is in Denmark, how do you ACTUALLY know that it's not?)
  - phaemon 7y ago
    Number of daily deaths for the last 3 days, as I mentioned before, was 31. The 3 days before that, 18. The 3 days before that 15. That is clearly increasing. I know it's not from the statistics. Note I don't need to know the exact percentage of asymptomatic cases for this, or to know the correct course of action. Which was my point to start with. Perhaps you lost track of it?
    - vonmoltke 7y ago
      So, what is it going to be in 3 days? 6 days? 9 days? Your view on the situation is purely reactionary. Having population-level data allows public health officials to proactively take steps to mitigate the current crisis and anticipate how much surge capacity they will actually need. Right now they can't do that, because even testing of symptomatic people is bottlenecked. Being reactionary to a crisis like this is a very bad idea and will lead to it being worse than it needs to be.
      - watwut 7y ago
        I think that fear that people are on fishing expedition to find any numbers that could be twisted as optimistic and then use them for politics is not reactionary paranoia. That is exactly what was and is going on last weeks. And phaemon is completely correct in saying that US has not done everything it can. It was the opposite - spinning situation in absurdly optimistic way until it became impossible to ignore.