4 ms·

I'm not being irrational; you are. I accept what I'm seeing as the reality of the situation. You appear to be looking for numbers that will tell you things are

I'm not being irrational; you are. I accept what I'm seeing as the reality of the situation. You appear to be looking for numbers that will tell you things are different to the observed reality. That's my point.

Lewton 7y ago
You don't KNOW what the reality of the situation is right now without knowing how many people are actually infected
rimliu 7y ago
The observed reality where? Bergamo? South Korea?
- VBprogrammer 7y ago
  The situation in South Korea is clearly an outlier. Even knowing exactly the steps which have drastically slowed the growth of the virus in South Korea is about as useful as knowing last week's lottery numbers at this point.
  - rimliu 7y ago
    Taiwan, Hong Kong. You can even say that Italy is an outlier too.
  - easytiger 7y ago
    It's not an outlier. Germany has even lower numbers despite doing even less than Korea. Italy and the UK book the death of anyone who died testing positive as a covid19 death. The UK won't release any figures beyond that. Not even hospitalisation data. Studies in Italy show fewer than 15% of those deaths might be specifically caused by it. > On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.^ In fact the average comorbiditities is 2.7. mean age of death is 79.5 years. Median 80.5. ^ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...
creato 7y ago
If many more people are infected with mild symptoms than currently thought, that could have large implications for how long economic shutdowns need to last.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- easytiger 7y ago
  Well it's currently thought as many as 50% don't develop symptoms for the duration of the infection (and likely aren't necessarily a big infection risk) based on studies in Italy. 90% only very mild symptoms.

Lewton 7y ago

You don't KNOW what the reality of the situation is right now without knowing how many people are actually infected

rimliu 7y ago

The observed reality where? Bergamo? South Korea?

VBprogrammer 7y ago
The situation in South Korea is clearly an outlier. Even knowing exactly the steps which have drastically slowed the growth of the virus in South Korea is about as useful as knowing last week's lottery numbers at this point.
- rimliu 7y ago
  Taiwan, Hong Kong. You can even say that Italy is an outlier too.
- easytiger 7y ago
  It's not an outlier. Germany has even lower numbers despite doing even less than Korea. Italy and the UK book the death of anyone who died testing positive as a covid19 death. The UK won't release any figures beyond that. Not even hospitalisation data. Studies in Italy show fewer than 15% of those deaths might be specifically caused by it. > On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.^ In fact the average comorbiditities is 2.7. mean age of death is 79.5 years. Median 80.5. ^ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...

creato 7y ago

If many more people are infected with mild symptoms than currently thought, that could have large implications for how long economic shutdowns need to last.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
easytiger 7y ago
Well it's currently thought as many as 50% don't develop symptoms for the duration of the infection (and likely aren't necessarily a big infection risk) based on studies in Italy. 90% only very mild symptoms.