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An alternative to your alternative: science and medicine still work. Let's try and make it better. The better we understand our situation the better we can reac

An alternative to your alternative: science and medicine still work. Let's try and make it better. The better we understand our situation the better we can react appropriately. Yes, it's really bad in a few places right now. It looks like it's going to be really bad in a lot more places in the next 15-20 days. How _long_ will it be really bad for and for how _many_ people will it be really bad are important questions to understand. Don't let the dire situation make you irrational.

phaemon 7y ago
I'm not being irrational; you are. I accept what I'm seeing as the reality of the situation. You appear to be looking for numbers that will tell you things are different to the observed reality. That's my point.
- Lewton 7y ago
  You don't KNOW what the reality of the situation is right now without knowing how many people are actually infected
- rimliu 7y ago
  The observed reality where? Bergamo? South Korea?
  - VBprogrammer 7y ago
    The situation in South Korea is clearly an outlier. Even knowing exactly the steps which have drastically slowed the growth of the virus in South Korea is about as useful as knowing last week's lottery numbers at this point.
    - rimliu 7y ago
      Taiwan, Hong Kong. You can even say that Italy is an outlier too.
    - easytiger 7y ago
      It's not an outlier. Germany has even lower numbers despite doing even less than Korea. Italy and the UK book the death of anyone who died testing positive as a covid19 death. The UK won't release any figures beyond that. Not even hospitalisation data. Studies in Italy show fewer than 15% of those deaths might be specifically caused by it. > On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.^ In fact the average comorbiditities is 2.7. mean age of death is 79.5 years. Median 80.5. ^ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...
- creato 7y ago
  If many more people are infected with mild symptoms than currently thought, that could have large implications for how long economic shutdowns need to last.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - easytiger 7y ago
    Well it's currently thought as many as 50% don't develop symptoms for the duration of the infection (and likely aren't necessarily a big infection risk) based on studies in Italy. 90% only very mild symptoms.

phaemon 7y ago

I'm not being irrational; you are. I accept what I'm seeing as the reality of the situation. You appear to be looking for numbers that will tell you things are different to the observed reality. That's my point.

Lewton 7y ago
You don't KNOW what the reality of the situation is right now without knowing how many people are actually infected
rimliu 7y ago
The observed reality where? Bergamo? South Korea?
- VBprogrammer 7y ago
  The situation in South Korea is clearly an outlier. Even knowing exactly the steps which have drastically slowed the growth of the virus in South Korea is about as useful as knowing last week's lottery numbers at this point.
  - rimliu 7y ago
    Taiwan, Hong Kong. You can even say that Italy is an outlier too.
  - easytiger 7y ago
    It's not an outlier. Germany has even lower numbers despite doing even less than Korea. Italy and the UK book the death of anyone who died testing positive as a covid19 death. The UK won't release any figures beyond that. Not even hospitalisation data. Studies in Italy show fewer than 15% of those deaths might be specifically caused by it. > On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.^ In fact the average comorbiditities is 2.7. mean age of death is 79.5 years. Median 80.5. ^ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...
creato 7y ago
If many more people are infected with mild symptoms than currently thought, that could have large implications for how long economic shutdowns need to last.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- easytiger 7y ago
  Well it's currently thought as many as 50% don't develop symptoms for the duration of the infection (and likely aren't necessarily a big infection risk) based on studies in Italy. 90% only very mild symptoms.