I think it would be much more interesting to have a HN discussion thread on where the economy may be heading. Sure, it depends on the virus, but we can probabl

I think it would be much more interesting to have a HN discussion thread on where the economy may be heading. Sure, it depends on the virus, but we can probably come up with a few scenarios covering likely outcomes. Personally, I think the fundamentals are not looking good, as you mention. I'm guessing we're going to finally see the inflation everyone has been expecting since QE#1/2008. We just pumped the monetary supply yet half the country seems to be stagnant. Goods aren't being made, warehouses are being depleted. I think we're in store for shortages and price hikes on labor intensive goods. The strength of the dollar will likely depend on how we fare relative to other countries. Now, assuming inflation, I would expect some hikes in asset prices(not adjusted for inflation of course), but I don't know what the timing of that would be. Maybe it takes a few quarters for higher prices to translate to higher stock prices? Also, I would think that having unemployment in the 10-40% range would severely reduce retirement contributions and equity purchases by individuals, although I don't know if that is enough to matter relative to the big players like hedge funds and pension plans(and the fed, who might start buying equities for some reason).