5 ms·

So if the mortality rate of the decease is what it is in Germany or Korea - about 0.5% but the number of dead is 4x the official 10.000. Then about 8 mio - ca 1

by chvid 7y ago

So if the mortality rate of the decease is what it is in Germany or Korea - about 0.5% but the number of dead is 4x the official 10.000. Then about 8 mio - ca 15% - of Italy’s population has had it. Is that really correct?

cycrutchfield 7y ago
Korea's CFR is 1.6%. Germany is 0.9%. Both are climbing over time as the time lag from detection to death is on the order of weeks.
- Symmetry 7y ago
  Korea's used to be, what, .6% when they stabilized the number of infections? At the time I was hoping the true IFR was that low but as you say this thing can take a long time to kill people and given what a good job Korea's done with staying on top of their testing I'm not holding out hope that the IFR is below 1%.
elorant 7y ago
It could be, but then the R0 should be greater than 3. Which is kind of scary.
- nicoburns 7y ago
  Here in the UK, I personally know a lot of people who suspect that they have it, but aren't in official numbers because their symptoms are mild and access to tests is poor. 15% doesn't seem beyond the realm of possibility. Beyond a certain point I think it's actually less scary it's more people have it, no? Because it means that the serious cases are a smaller proportion.
  - goatlover 7y ago
    But that also means it will spread faster and peak higher, which creates a larger burden on hospitals.
    - nicoburns 7y ago
      Spread faster, yes. But if enough people have it who are not being included in the stats, then I think that means it will peak lower, as it would mean that the percentage of people who need hospital care would be lower than is being assumed.
  - marvin 7y ago
    I know several people in Norway who suspected they had it, got tested and returned negative. Based on this anecdotal information, I wouldn't put too much stock in those kinds of guesses without testing.
    - nicoburns 7y ago
      Yeah, that's a good point. Hopefully they'll get testing rolled out here soon!
buboard 7y ago
it must be more complicated because it's very unevenly distributed - Milan was spared, and it's only 3km from bergamo
- buboard 7y ago
  Oops, 45km

by chvid 7y ago

cycrutchfield 7y ago

Korea's CFR is 1.6%. Germany is 0.9%. Both are climbing over time as the time lag from detection to death is on the order of weeks.

Symmetry 7y ago
Korea's used to be, what, .6% when they stabilized the number of infections? At the time I was hoping the true IFR was that low but as you say this thing can take a long time to kill people and given what a good job Korea's done with staying on top of their testing I'm not holding out hope that the IFR is below 1%.

elorant 7y ago

It could be, but then the R0 should be greater than 3. Which is kind of scary.

nicoburns 7y ago
Here in the UK, I personally know a lot of people who suspect that they have it, but aren't in official numbers because their symptoms are mild and access to tests is poor. 15% doesn't seem beyond the realm of possibility. Beyond a certain point I think it's actually less scary it's more people have it, no? Because it means that the serious cases are a smaller proportion.
- goatlover 7y ago
  But that also means it will spread faster and peak higher, which creates a larger burden on hospitals.
  - nicoburns 7y ago
    Spread faster, yes. But if enough people have it who are not being included in the stats, then I think that means it will peak lower, as it would mean that the percentage of people who need hospital care would be lower than is being assumed.
- marvin 7y ago
  I know several people in Norway who suspected they had it, got tested and returned negative. Based on this anecdotal information, I wouldn't put too much stock in those kinds of guesses without testing.
  - nicoburns 7y ago
    Yeah, that's a good point. Hopefully they'll get testing rolled out here soon!

buboard 7y ago

it must be more complicated because it's very unevenly distributed - Milan was spared, and it's only 3km from bergamo

buboard 7y ago
Oops, 45km