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To play devil’s advocate — a not insubstantial amount of the economic damage is self-induced. We could accept some degree of risk and the associated consequence

To play devil’s advocate — a not insubstantial amount of the economic damage is self-induced. We could accept some degree of risk and the associated consequences to reduce that, but we have not for various reasons that are subject to debate. I suspect in hindsight we’ll find we have overreacted due to a lack of good information.

jbay808 7y ago
I also suspect that some of it is just revealing economic malaise that already existed but was hidden, and this served as a Schelling point for it to reveal itself.
- vanniv 7y ago
  No economy, healthy or otherwise can withstand being intentionally dismantled and the pieces burned to ash. If you order the world to stop production or trade for an indefinite period, poverty and depression is the only possible result, no matter how healthy the production and trade were before being stopped
  - Threeve303 7y ago
    > no matter how healthy the production and trade were before being stopped The economy had at least two noticeable and possibly systemic issues before Covid-19. The several yield curve inversions combined with funding problems in the repo market. We certainly hope for a V-shaped recovery but there is no telling what kind of issues have been attributed to the virus that may still be there when this passes.
inpdx 7y ago
The flip side is even 1% of a populace dying is going to impede daily life even if we were all sociopaths. In reality, once hospitals get overloaded, the number is quite a bit higher than 1%. So to do nothing would also be choosing economic and societal turmoil.
- danenania 7y ago
  Yes, and it's also not as though everyone just goes on their merry way in the midst of a pandemic just because a politician declares the country "re-opened". A large percentage of people will continue trying to isolate themselves and their families until they feel assured the outbreak is over and risk of infection is low. This will severely impact the economy whether or not there are official restrictions in place. The only way to really get the economy going again is to deal with the virus.

jbay808 7y ago

I also suspect that some of it is just revealing economic malaise that already existed but was hidden, and this served as a Schelling point for it to reveal itself.

vanniv 7y ago
No economy, healthy or otherwise can withstand being intentionally dismantled and the pieces burned to ash. If you order the world to stop production or trade for an indefinite period, poverty and depression is the only possible result, no matter how healthy the production and trade were before being stopped
- Threeve303 7y ago
  > no matter how healthy the production and trade were before being stopped The economy had at least two noticeable and possibly systemic issues before Covid-19. The several yield curve inversions combined with funding problems in the repo market. We certainly hope for a V-shaped recovery but there is no telling what kind of issues have been attributed to the virus that may still be there when this passes.

inpdx 7y ago

The flip side is even 1% of a populace dying is going to impede daily life even if we were all sociopaths. In reality, once hospitals get overloaded, the number is quite a bit higher than 1%. So to do nothing would also be choosing economic and societal turmoil.

danenania 7y ago
Yes, and it's also not as though everyone just goes on their merry way in the midst of a pandemic just because a politician declares the country "re-opened". A large percentage of people will continue trying to isolate themselves and their families until they feel assured the outbreak is over and risk of infection is low. This will severely impact the economy whether or not there are official restrictions in place. The only way to really get the economy going again is to deal with the virus.