8 ms·

Time to buy MS stock.

by hestefisk 7y ago

gruez 7y ago
priced in
- jbverschoor 7y ago
  No it's not.. The market is not sane atm. It's 100% emotion.
  - __blockcipher__ 7y ago
    What makes you think that? Have you seen a discrepancy between your projections of future cash flows and therefore your valuation, as compared to the value the market is at right now?
    - jbverschoor 7y ago
      They’re mainly a software / services company. There’s no reason their revenue will drop, the contrary.. Yet the stock price has the exact same changes as the rest of the entire market. Their cloud demand is up x7.. it’s not priced in. Amazon same thing, although less so imho Their current p/e is 26. Remove cash and it’s nearing 20.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
    - dumbfoundded 7y ago
      I think it's safe to say the market isn't rational when Zoom Technologies is up nearly 900% when it's completely unrelated to Zoom Video and not actually operating. There's a different HN post about it: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-sec-really-wants-investors-to-stop-buying-the-wrong-zoom-stock-2020-03-27 https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-sec-really-wants-investo...
      - noitsnot 7y ago
        I don't think you can really compare people accidentally buying the wrong ticker to investors unable to place valuations based on virus uncertainties. They were buying the wrong stock before the virus hit more than a year ago.
        dumbfoundded 7y ago
        The wrong stock increased faster than the real stock. Volume matters too but when the underlying causes are irrational, how can any pricing be logical over any period longer than a few days?
  - dehrmann 7y ago
    5-10% swings are definitely not sane. I think there was technically a 3-day bull market last week, even though there wasn't much news that wasn't foreseeable on Monday. I read that a lot of hedge funds running heavily leveraged, marginally profitable strategies have been deleveraging. That's a pretty rational response. Some of the movement is emotional, but some is driven by more rational concerns.
- AznHisoka 7y ago
  Microsoft stock is up more than 4% today after this news. It's almost foolish to claim anything is priced in because the stock market is a Keynesian contest. Claiming it's priced in means you know how every other portfolio and hedge fund manager is going to react to news. Some might be slow to react, some might overreact, etc. Nobody can read minds. Thus it's almost impossible to claim anything is priced in.
cm2187 7y ago
I don’t know about that. Long MSFT short AAPL perhaps. But if we believe that the lockdowns will last 2 months+, and if we believe the economic forecasts, we are facing a crisis worse than 2008. Even good stocks sink in those markets. The 30% drop we have seen so far barely reversed Trump’s rally. I don’t know that a severe recession is priced in yet.
- ShinTakuya 7y ago
  2 months? Try 2 years. It's a year minimum before we get a handle on this (no, not the vaccine, just the virus itself).
  - mardifoufs 7y ago
    That's ludicrous. If you were right we wouldn't have a stock market by then. We wouldn't even have an economy after 1 year of lock downs, even if they were on and off. There's a point where we just won't be able to isolate and if the virus stays dangerous we will be forced to just take the risk.
    - RangerScience 7y ago
      "I do not think that this argument is sufficiently substantial to require refutation. Consolation would be more appropriate." https://www.csee.umbc.edu/courses/471/papers/turing.pdf https://www.csee.umbc.edu/courses/471/papers/turing.pdf Or, we change the kind of economy that we have. We're seeing right now how what parts are actually "essential"; arguably, the rest is only necessary for growth. If growth stops being the goal, the the economy as it was doesn't have to continue. We're already seeing some rumblings of a stark dichotomy, what with some people advocating for a return to work and acceptance of the risk, contrasting with the backlash that their dollar is not more important than someone's life. In a Japanese subway, someone wrote: “We can't return to normal, because the normal that we had was precisely the problem.” It doesn't entirely matter if they're right or wrong objectively; if enough people subscribe to this view, it becomes what we live through.
      - 7y ago
dehrmann 7y ago
Setting the "priced in" bit aside, someone in mentioned their unusual (at least for cloud billing) quota system. If customers are unable to provision new VMs, they could end up offering discounts for essentially missing their SLA. It also depends on how much spare capacity they have to sell.
rsynnott 7y ago
Amazon ,surely? They’re presumably seeing similar demand boosts, but seem to be struggling less with it.
- mcintyre1994 7y ago
  I'm not so sure they'll be seeing the same demand boosts - I don't think they have the same masses of remote desktop and Office 365 sort of use cases. I'm sure services built on AWS are seeing big increases, but I think Microsoft's situation is probably unique.
hestefisk 7y ago
Why was this downvoted? It was meant as a positive remark. Not trying to troll. I think it’s healthy for AWS with some competition.
hillarious 7y ago
The same kind of thinking sent the stock market shooting up when some 3 million people filed for unemployment claims last week. "Phew! Now that its priced in, let us focus on putting our $2 trillion to work"

Time to buy MS stock.

gruez 7y ago

priced in

jbverschoor 7y ago
No it's not.. The market is not sane atm. It's 100% emotion.
- __blockcipher__ 7y ago
  What makes you think that? Have you seen a discrepancy between your projections of future cash flows and therefore your valuation, as compared to the value the market is at right now?
  - jbverschoor 7y ago
    They’re mainly a software / services company. There’s no reason their revenue will drop, the contrary.. Yet the stock price has the exact same changes as the rest of the entire market. Their cloud demand is up x7.. it’s not priced in. Amazon same thing, although less so imho Their current p/e is 26. Remove cash and it’s nearing 20.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
  - dumbfoundded 7y ago
    I think it's safe to say the market isn't rational when Zoom Technologies is up nearly 900% when it's completely unrelated to Zoom Video and not actually operating. There's a different HN post about it: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-sec-really-wants-investors-to-stop-buying-the-wrong-zoom-stock-2020-03-27 https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-sec-really-wants-investo...
    - noitsnot 7y ago
      I don't think you can really compare people accidentally buying the wrong ticker to investors unable to place valuations based on virus uncertainties. They were buying the wrong stock before the virus hit more than a year ago.
      - dumbfoundded 7y ago
        The wrong stock increased faster than the real stock. Volume matters too but when the underlying causes are irrational, how can any pricing be logical over any period longer than a few days?
- dehrmann 7y ago
  5-10% swings are definitely not sane. I think there was technically a 3-day bull market last week, even though there wasn't much news that wasn't foreseeable on Monday. I read that a lot of hedge funds running heavily leveraged, marginally profitable strategies have been deleveraging. That's a pretty rational response. Some of the movement is emotional, but some is driven by more rational concerns.
AznHisoka 7y ago
Microsoft stock is up more than 4% today after this news. It's almost foolish to claim anything is priced in because the stock market is a Keynesian contest. Claiming it's priced in means you know how every other portfolio and hedge fund manager is going to react to news. Some might be slow to react, some might overreact, etc. Nobody can read minds. Thus it's almost impossible to claim anything is priced in.

cm2187 7y ago

I don’t know about that. Long MSFT short AAPL perhaps. But if we believe that the lockdowns will last 2 months+, and if we believe the economic forecasts, we are facing a crisis worse than 2008. Even good stocks sink in those markets. The 30% drop we have seen so far barely reversed Trump’s rally. I don’t know that a severe recession is priced in yet.

ShinTakuya 7y ago
2 months? Try 2 years. It's a year minimum before we get a handle on this (no, not the vaccine, just the virus itself).
- mardifoufs 7y ago
  That's ludicrous. If you were right we wouldn't have a stock market by then. We wouldn't even have an economy after 1 year of lock downs, even if they were on and off. There's a point where we just won't be able to isolate and if the virus stays dangerous we will be forced to just take the risk.
  - RangerScience 7y ago
    "I do not think that this argument is sufficiently substantial to require refutation. Consolation would be more appropriate." https://www.csee.umbc.edu/courses/471/papers/turing.pdf https://www.csee.umbc.edu/courses/471/papers/turing.pdf Or, we change the kind of economy that we have. We're seeing right now how what parts are actually "essential"; arguably, the rest is only necessary for growth. If growth stops being the goal, the the economy as it was doesn't have to continue. We're already seeing some rumblings of a stark dichotomy, what with some people advocating for a return to work and acceptance of the risk, contrasting with the backlash that their dollar is not more important than someone's life. In a Japanese subway, someone wrote: “We can't return to normal, because the normal that we had was precisely the problem.” It doesn't entirely matter if they're right or wrong objectively; if enough people subscribe to this view, it becomes what we live through.
    - 7y ago

dehrmann 7y ago

Setting the "priced in" bit aside, someone in mentioned their unusual (at least for cloud billing) quota system. If customers are unable to provision new VMs, they could end up offering discounts for essentially missing their SLA. It also depends on how much spare capacity they have to sell.

rsynnott 7y ago

Amazon ,surely? They’re presumably seeing similar demand boosts, but seem to be struggling less with it.

mcintyre1994 7y ago
I'm not so sure they'll be seeing the same demand boosts - I don't think they have the same masses of remote desktop and Office 365 sort of use cases. I'm sure services built on AWS are seeing big increases, but I think Microsoft's situation is probably unique.

hestefisk 7y ago

Why was this downvoted? It was meant as a positive remark. Not trying to troll. I think it’s healthy for AWS with some competition.

hillarious 7y ago

The same kind of thinking sent the stock market shooting up when some 3 million people filed for unemployment claims last week. "Phew! Now that its priced in, let us focus on putting our $2 trillion to work"