The question to me, aside from assumptions about infection rate, is: are the people that are getting hospitalized and/or dying today just unlucky, or are they m

The question to me, aside from assumptions about infection rate, is: are the people that are getting hospitalized and/or dying today just unlucky, or are they more susceptible to the virus or its effects? If they are just unlucky, the death rate may hold. If, however, its just the highest risk population having the worst outcomes, the death rate will plummet as they die off. In order for the US to hit 1M+ deaths, you have to assume that people getting infected in 3 or 6 or 12 months from now are just as likely to die as those dying today.