4 ms·
Interesting, they're projecting the peak much earlier than other projections I've seen, especially considering they're factoring in social distancing measures.
by noelsusman 7y ago
Interesting, they're projecting the peak much earlier than other projections I've seen, especially considering they're factoring in social distancing measures. I'm not sure I buy it. For example, North Carolina currently has 91 patients in the hospital for COVID19. The model projected 300-1000 hospitalizations by this point, suggesting that their model is over-aggressive with the ramp-up time.
The models I've seen with the peak in April have been the truly apocalyptic scenarios. Most models that incorporate social distancing push the peak out into May and beyond.
- acqq 7y ago> North Carolina currently has 91 patients in the hospital for COVID19. The model projected 300-1000 hospitalizations by this point The doubling time is in many places only 3 days. From my point of view the model which is off by only a week could still be quite correct.
- MR4D 7y agoThe data backs you up. The model projected 437 deaths for March 28th (tolerance bands of 380 - 508). According to [0], the deaths were actually 264. But the model predicted around that only two days prior ( 273 deaths on March 26th). I’d say it’s pretty accurate - off only by a couple days. [0] - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
- dhimes 7y agoConsidering it was probably two doubling times (I've been seeing 2.77 days or so as well from the jhu site) to write the paper and get it out- working extremely hard.