4 ms·
I think that in hindsight Sweden's approach will look reasonable. The data we have now, imperfect as it is, shows that the elderly are the main risk group and t
by BaronSamedi 7y ago
I think that in hindsight Sweden's approach will look reasonable. The data we have now, imperfect as it is, shows that the elderly are the main risk group and therefore the ones needing special protection. The South Koreans have very good data and publish it daily. Their recent CFR numbers by age group are:
80+ 17.51%
70-79 6.77%
60-69 1.74%
50-59 0.56%
40-49 0.08%
30-39 0.10%
0-29 0%
The data from other countries matches this distribution. Keep in mind that the CFR is what we have but not the number we want. The one we want is the infection fatality rate (IFR). This is the number of deaths divided the total number of cases (not just the reported ones). The IFR numbers are likely to be lower due to the fact that widespread testing is not in place in many countries.
- PeterStuer 7y agoYou are assuming dead or perfect health is the only outcome. Besides, since it takes on average about 2 weeks to die of this disease after being admitted to hospital, you should compare today's dead rate with the number of admitted cases 2 weeks ago.
- ricardobeat 7y agoOnly if you ignore the overloaded-healthcare-system factor, which is the main reason for lockdowns, not the number of deaths.
- BaronSamedi 7y agoNot ignored, I just cannot find any good data on hospitalization rates by age group nor the associated stats. These figures also do not take into account pre-existing conditions which greatly influence the CFR.
- lsc 7y agoMy understanding is that a lot of those young people end up needing to go to the hospital, and only survive because of treatment. If the hospitals are overwhelmed, the death rate is going to go way up.