It’s not relevant; yes, it is wrong. Firstly, we have a lot more than the one datapoint. Secondly, we can look at what’s happened in other countries (like China

It’s not relevant; yes, it is wrong. Firstly, we have a lot more than the one datapoint. Secondly, we can look at what’s happened in other countries (like China). But, most importantly, the models don’t work like this, they’re more like a simulation. Take a look at the “Methods” section of this report, for example. It’s quite easily readable. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... This is the report credited in the media for changing the government response in a number of countries