5 ms·

Everybody's brave until the deaths start to mount. Let's check again in two weeks.

martinhath 7y ago
We don't need to wait two weeks; Sweden has significantly more deaths (110) than any of it's neighboring countries: Norway (25), Denmark (72), and Finland (11). [0]: https://www.corona.cloud/ https://www.corona.cloud/
- gdrift 7y ago
  https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
- wodenokoto 7y ago
  Swedens population is almost twice of Denmarks, so I am not sure saying 110 is signifcantly more than 72.
  - martinhath 7y ago
    Denmark is also about 5 times as dense, so one could easily attribute the death number to that.
    - Gwypaas 7y ago
      I think the numbers are within margin if you measure what actually matters; urbanization. The huge swaths of empty forests up north in Sweden makes the 5 times number look ridiculous but doesn't carry any meaning. Looking at urbanization: Denmark: 87.5% [0] Sweden: 87.4% [1] Another statistic is Copenhagen Metropolitan area compared to Stockholm, which both is about 2.5 million. Though Copenhagen jumps to 4 million if you go by the Öresund region including parts of Sweden. [2] [0]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/455812/urbanization-in-denmark/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/455812/urbanization-in-d... [1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/455935/urbanization-in-sweden/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/455935/urbanization-in-s... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%98resund_Region https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%98resund_Region
- lazyjones 7y ago
  Sweden is significantly behind Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark at deaths per 1M: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries The epidemic is still growing fast though and since some countries are naturally lagging behind others, the effectiveness of measures will only be seen in the aftermath.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- cmehdy 7y ago
  That's almost twice the amount of deaths in Canada, which has a population of over 30 million people and is on a relatively tight lockdown (not as intense as some European countries but still well followed). Different folks different strokes, but I wonder which approach is going to be the most reasonable in hindsight.
YZF 7y ago
Their numbers though seem to show they are not on the same curve as some other countries. Low/flatish daily increases, flat to lower deaths per day. Maybe what they're doing works for them for some other reason. EDIT: though the higher relative numbers of severe cases and deaths might indicate they don't know how many cases they really have.
- nerpderp82 7y ago
  Exponentials look linear when you are on them and they are small. There are no magic answers here.
  - rickard 7y ago
    The number of people in intensive care is most certainly not growing exponentially. Please see the official statistics on https://portal.icuregswe.org/siri/report/vtfstart-corona https://portal.icuregswe.org/siri/report/vtfstart-corona . The number of patients admitted to intensive care daily has gone from 43 on the 23rd of March to 10 today. The cumulative number of patients admitted to intensive care is 278, and since we had 510 intensive care before the start of the pandemic, that is not a problem at all. Unless you have reason to believe that the ratio of patients requiring intensive care somehow has decreased radically during the course of the pandemic, the growth of cases is most certainly not exponential.
    - stenl 7y ago
      There is lag in the reporting I think. The total number of patients increased by 39 from yesterday, but those were probably assigned to multiple dates in the past. Therefore it will always look like the last few days are declining.
dang 7y ago
Could you please stop creating accounts for every few comments you post? We ban accounts that do that. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. You needn't use your real name, of course, but for HN to be a community, users need some identity for others to relate to. Otherwise we may as well have no usernames and no community, and that would be a different kind of forum. https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix&page=0&query=by:dang%20community%20identity https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...
Causality1 7y ago
I kinda figured that was how it was going to go. First came the panic as everyone realized how "real" it is, and now we're into the stage where we're getting tired of feeling those emotions just because of things we've heard and been told. We're in the lull now, where certain people start calling for a return to normality despite no real change in the acceleration of cases. In a few weeks will come the slap and then the gut punch. The slap is when everybody knows someone who tested positive. The gut punch is when everybody knows someone, maybe multiple someones, who died from it.
- guscost 7y ago
  In a few months we will certainly see whether you’re right, or not.

We don't need to wait two weeks; Sweden has significantly more deaths (110) than any of it's neighboring countries: Norway (25), Denmark (72), and Finland (11). [0]: https://www.corona.cloud/ https://www.corona.cloud/

gdrift 7y ago
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
wodenokoto 7y ago
Swedens population is almost twice of Denmarks, so I am not sure saying 110 is signifcantly more than 72.
- martinhath 7y ago
  Denmark is also about 5 times as dense, so one could easily attribute the death number to that.
  - Gwypaas 7y ago
    I think the numbers are within margin if you measure what actually matters; urbanization. The huge swaths of empty forests up north in Sweden makes the 5 times number look ridiculous but doesn't carry any meaning. Looking at urbanization: Denmark: 87.5% [0] Sweden: 87.4% [1] Another statistic is Copenhagen Metropolitan area compared to Stockholm, which both is about 2.5 million. Though Copenhagen jumps to 4 million if you go by the Öresund region including parts of Sweden. [2] [0]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/455812/urbanization-in-denmark/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/455812/urbanization-in-d... [1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/455935/urbanization-in-sweden/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/455935/urbanization-in-s... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%98resund_Region https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%98resund_Region
lazyjones 7y ago
Sweden is significantly behind Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark at deaths per 1M: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries The epidemic is still growing fast though and since some countries are naturally lagging behind others, the effectiveness of measures will only be seen in the aftermath.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
cmehdy 7y ago
That's almost twice the amount of deaths in Canada, which has a population of over 30 million people and is on a relatively tight lockdown (not as intense as some European countries but still well followed). Different folks different strokes, but I wonder which approach is going to be the most reasonable in hindsight.

YZF 7y ago

Their numbers though seem to show they are not on the same curve as some other countries. Low/flatish daily increases, flat to lower deaths per day. Maybe what they're doing works for them for some other reason. EDIT: though the higher relative numbers of severe cases and deaths might indicate they don't know how many cases they really have.

nerpderp82 7y ago
Exponentials look linear when you are on them and they are small. There are no magic answers here.
- rickard 7y ago
  The number of people in intensive care is most certainly not growing exponentially. Please see the official statistics on https://portal.icuregswe.org/siri/report/vtfstart-corona https://portal.icuregswe.org/siri/report/vtfstart-corona . The number of patients admitted to intensive care daily has gone from 43 on the 23rd of March to 10 today. The cumulative number of patients admitted to intensive care is 278, and since we had 510 intensive care before the start of the pandemic, that is not a problem at all. Unless you have reason to believe that the ratio of patients requiring intensive care somehow has decreased radically during the course of the pandemic, the growth of cases is most certainly not exponential.
  - stenl 7y ago
    There is lag in the reporting I think. The total number of patients increased by 39 from yesterday, but those were probably assigned to multiple dates in the past. Therefore it will always look like the last few days are declining.

dang 7y ago

Could you please stop creating accounts for every few comments you post? We ban accounts that do that. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. You needn't use your real name, of course, but for HN to be a community, users need some identity for others to relate to. Otherwise we may as well have no usernames and no community, and that would be a different kind of forum. https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix&page=0&query=by:dang%20community%20identity https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...

Causality1 7y ago

I kinda figured that was how it was going to go. First came the panic as everyone realized how "real" it is, and now we're into the stage where we're getting tired of feeling those emotions just because of things we've heard and been told. We're in the lull now, where certain people start calling for a return to normality despite no real change in the acceleration of cases. In a few weeks will come the slap and then the gut punch. The slap is when everybody knows someone who tested positive. The gut punch is when everybody knows someone, maybe multiple someones, who died from it.

guscost 7y ago
In a few months we will certainly see whether you’re right, or not.