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Don't assume the data going into this model has anything to do with reality. There's a very, very good reason that the China data almost perfectly fits a curve

Don't assume the data going into this model has anything to do with reality. There's a very, very good reason that the China data almost perfectly fits a curve. That's because they used a quadratic equation to generate the data. The lines of hundreds/thousands of people waiting to recover the ashes of relatives from several cremation facilities, along with the documented arrival of roughly 45,000 urns to Wuhan alone belies the rotten data that even now claims only 3,300 total deaths in .cn

danharaj 7y ago
If China is understating the damage from the virus they are only doing it by a constant factor at best. You cannot hide an exponentially growing epidemic, no matter how hard you try. That's just how it is on this bitch of a function. Western propaganda has trained its people to think the Chinese communist party is as stupid as it is authoritarian. Quick quiz, if you don't know who Li Keqiang is then you more likely than not treat the CCP as a black box controlled by Winnie the Pooh.
- esoterae 7y ago
  Just following up to point out the subsequent publication of the existence of a report by US intelligence services indicating a massive cover-up of actual SARS-CoV-2 involvement statistics for Wuhan and across all of mainland China. I submit https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_quadratic_coronavirus_epidemic_growth_model/ https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_... as illustrating my earlier point. I also submit https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
FuckButtons 7y ago
That just isn’t consistent with other countries in the region which have much more reliable data though. I may not believe a word the Chinese government says, but I do believe South Korea, and Singapore, and Taiwan.
- esoterae 7y ago
  These are all countries with aggressive health programs developed in the aftermath of SARS and honed by H1N1. You're comparing apples and oranges not only in terms of border controls limiting ingress after recognition, but also SARS-CoV-2 first outbreak appears in the middle of a dense urban population. That initial outbreak was then allowed to gain a foothold as the government wrongfully silenced the people calling for help, vs. these three having aggressive policies to prevent suspect cases from entering the country on top of aggressive screening and testing policies spread across the urban lifescape.

danharaj 7y ago

If China is understating the damage from the virus they are only doing it by a constant factor at best. You cannot hide an exponentially growing epidemic, no matter how hard you try. That's just how it is on this bitch of a function. Western propaganda has trained its people to think the Chinese communist party is as stupid as it is authoritarian. Quick quiz, if you don't know who Li Keqiang is then you more likely than not treat the CCP as a black box controlled by Winnie the Pooh.

esoterae 7y ago
Just following up to point out the subsequent publication of the existence of a report by US intelligence services indicating a massive cover-up of actual SARS-CoV-2 involvement statistics for Wuhan and across all of mainland China. I submit https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_quadratic_coronavirus_epidemic_growth_model/ https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_... as illustrating my earlier point. I also submit https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

FuckButtons 7y ago

That just isn’t consistent with other countries in the region which have much more reliable data though. I may not believe a word the Chinese government says, but I do believe South Korea, and Singapore, and Taiwan.

esoterae 7y ago
These are all countries with aggressive health programs developed in the aftermath of SARS and honed by H1N1. You're comparing apples and oranges not only in terms of border controls limiting ingress after recognition, but also SARS-CoV-2 first outbreak appears in the middle of a dense urban population. That initial outbreak was then allowed to gain a foothold as the government wrongfully silenced the people calling for help, vs. these three having aggressive policies to prevent suspect cases from entering the country on top of aggressive screening and testing policies spread across the urban lifescape.