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Here is one calculation that estimates the Equal Value Life Year Gained as 15 years. Then, if we do nothing to mitigate the pandemic and 1 out of 200 people die

by nroets 7y ago

Here is one calculation that estimates the Equal Value Life Year Gained as 15 years. Then, if we do nothing to mitigate the pandemic and 1 out of 200 people die, then the average person looses 27 days. https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/03/27/how-economists-calculate-the-costs-and-benefits-of-covid-19-lockdowns/#14f1f8bf6f63 https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/03/27/how-ec... This article says it's 7.8 years on average and up to 13.26 million QALYs are at stake in the US. So it's expected that life expectancy for the whole population will decline by at most 14 days due to Covid 19. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/another-covid-cost-benefit-analysis/ https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/another-covid-cost-ben...

perl4ever 7y ago
"if we do nothing to mitigate the pandemic and 1 out of 200 people die," Where does that figure come from? Edit: also, I think 1 in 200 is very, very roughly 5-10 times all other infectious diseases in a normal year. So maybe that would provide perspective.
- nroets 7y ago
  Let me rephrase it: If governments does nothing, 1 out of 200 people will die. This study expects 510,000 people to die in the UK (depending on the R0 value) and 2200000 in the US. That's 1 in 135. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... It will be between 1 in 200 and 1 in 100.