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"Peak Oil" was the idea that the demand for oil would exceed the supply we are able to access. Yet we keep finding more and increasing our ability to access mor

"Peak Oil" was the idea that the demand for oil would exceed the supply we are able to access. Yet we keep finding more and increasing our ability to access more thanks to technological progress. But mostly, "Peak Oil" fears were ginned up by a press who love to promote tales of doom and destruction. Those trumpeting the threat of "Peak Oil" demanded broad governmental and social intervention to avoid what was assured to be a massive economic disaster. There were assertions that those denying the threat of "Peak Oil" were the Neville Chamberlains of their time or villagers refusing to vacate under the imminent threat of volcanic eruption. No mistake - oil has a fixed supply. It will run out. But it turns out that won't happen for some time. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2018/06/29/what-ever-happened-to-peak-oil/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2018/06/29/what-ev...

lstodd 7y ago
No, it's a mistake - oil most certainly does not have anything like a fixed supply that is going to run out. The supply grows alongside with the price people are willing to pay for it. As you yourself pointed out. Nowadays the demand falls, the prices fall, this would be followed by a fall in production. But whatever happens oil will be available at an affordable price because world just doesn't work without it. If oil gets too pricey, reserarch into digging up more oil more cheaply will be funded. As it happened with shale. And it will end up in one more oil price crisis same as the one we're witnessing. And the one after it.
- krapp 7y ago
  Obviously oil has a fixed supply... there is by definition only a finite amount of it, given that we live on a spheroid with a finite volume out of which to extract it. Supply doesn't grow with demand, as that would imply new oil is somehow being created with demand and that, given infinite demand, there would also be infinite supply. What does grow with demand is technological innovation and effort, and while we were not as close to the actual limit as we assumed with "peak oil", that doesn't mean the limit itself was fictional.
  - lstodd 7y ago
    Tech, innovation - they are just the other words for "infinite supply". Yes, it is not physically infinite. But it is effectively. As long as someone is willing to pay for it, it will be provided. And even cheaply - look, what's 1970's $12/barrel in nowadays dollars? $50? $100? We are so nowhere near running out of oil, that the whole possibility is best ignored.
    - krapp 7y ago
      >As long as someone is willing to pay for it, it will be provided. And even cheaply This is only true until it isn't. At some point oil will become economically and technologically infeasible and alternatives will win out, because no one wants the million-dollar a barrel oil economy that results when we have to resort to mining Titan for it.
      - lstodd 7y ago
        >At some point oil will become economically and technologically infeasible and alternatives will win out And it will, but I fail to see how this defeats my statement. Oil will become obsolete not because its price will rise, but only because the alternatives will finally become cheaper. Which is not the case as of now.
  - auntienomen 7y ago
    Given high enough price, we can extract oil from carbon in the air, at least as long as the sun keeps shining.

lstodd 7y ago

No, it's a mistake - oil most certainly does not have anything like a fixed supply that is going to run out. The supply grows alongside with the price people are willing to pay for it. As you yourself pointed out. Nowadays the demand falls, the prices fall, this would be followed by a fall in production. But whatever happens oil will be available at an affordable price because world just doesn't work without it. If oil gets too pricey, reserarch into digging up more oil more cheaply will be funded. As it happened with shale. And it will end up in one more oil price crisis same as the one we're witnessing. And the one after it.

krapp 7y ago
Obviously oil has a fixed supply... there is by definition only a finite amount of it, given that we live on a spheroid with a finite volume out of which to extract it. Supply doesn't grow with demand, as that would imply new oil is somehow being created with demand and that, given infinite demand, there would also be infinite supply. What does grow with demand is technological innovation and effort, and while we were not as close to the actual limit as we assumed with "peak oil", that doesn't mean the limit itself was fictional.
- lstodd 7y ago
  Tech, innovation - they are just the other words for "infinite supply". Yes, it is not physically infinite. But it is effectively. As long as someone is willing to pay for it, it will be provided. And even cheaply - look, what's 1970's $12/barrel in nowadays dollars? $50? $100? We are so nowhere near running out of oil, that the whole possibility is best ignored.
  - krapp 7y ago
    >As long as someone is willing to pay for it, it will be provided. And even cheaply This is only true until it isn't. At some point oil will become economically and technologically infeasible and alternatives will win out, because no one wants the million-dollar a barrel oil economy that results when we have to resort to mining Titan for it.
    - lstodd 7y ago
      >At some point oil will become economically and technologically infeasible and alternatives will win out And it will, but I fail to see how this defeats my statement. Oil will become obsolete not because its price will rise, but only because the alternatives will finally become cheaper. Which is not the case as of now.
- auntienomen 7y ago
  Given high enough price, we can extract oil from carbon in the air, at least as long as the sun keeps shining.