5 ms·
Okay since you opened the door to playing "call the bottom" where do you think it will be? I'll swag first. The end will be in sight when the US new case rate h
by imglorp 7y ago
Okay since you opened the door to playing "call the bottom" where do you think it will be? I'll swag first. The end will be in sight when the US new case rate hits its inflection point and begins decreasing. From that you can sorta tell when things will settle down biology-wise.
- dhimes 7y agoSo that's a couple of weeks away, according to the projections I posted yesterday. Peak deaths in the US are estimated for 15 April.
- perl4ever 7y agoI'm still reading things in other US-centric forums (automotive, oil & gas industry) where people are remarking about "hysteria" or acknowledging current numbers but implicitly assuming that the increase in cases is zero. So I think it's very dangerous to assume that prices are accurate if probably millions of people haven't caught up to reality yet. One thing that I read is that the current rebound might have been largely driven by automatic rebalancing of institutional investors who split between stocks and bonds.
- dhimes 7y agoThis is an excellent point.
- simonh 7y agoSure, but that doesn’t necessarily coincide with peak economic impact. We may be looking at some traumatic bankruptcies and economic disruptions, and those will likely lag the medical impact, in some cases by quite a lot. Some of the habits and behaviour changes people are developing may stick, causing severe problems for some companies or even whole industries, and this will play out over a long time. So I can’t say when we will hit bottom, there are too many uncertainties. Also the bottom for some industries and companies will differ from others.