4 ms·

The most transparent number is a direct comparison between deaths last year and deaths this year, in the same timespan (eg. Jan 2019 vs Jan 2020, and so on). Bu

by DrNuke 7y ago

The most transparent number is a direct comparison between deaths last year and deaths this year, in the same timespan (eg. Jan 2019 vs Jan 2020, and so on). But there is a lot of gamesmanship at play among nations, both for internal security and external geopolitics reasons, so these numbers are too much too often false after convenient miscalcultation or plain manipulation.

learnstats2 7y ago
Deaths are hardest to hide, so I'd always go with that over the other options - but Intensive Care beds seem to be the most critical stat now.
- azepoi 7y ago
  They are harder to hide but will only be known later. Some countries report only hospital death for now. But many die at home and in retirement communities. But it can track growth if the data stay consistent.
s1artibartfast 7y ago
I'm not sure if we will be able to separate the confounding factors such as economic impact at the population level. Do you have an idea how this can be done? I have seen a few studies using this method to look at excess mortality during the great recession [1],[2], but there wasn't a pandemic at the same time. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)00577-8/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3070776/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3070776/
- paganel 7y ago
  > but there wasn't a pandemic at the same time. There certainly was a pandemic, the 2009 H1N1 one. [1] In the last few months I've started to suspect that that was what killed my grandma in July 2010, she died very suddenly because of some respiratory issues (I live in Eastern Europe). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
  - s1artibartfast 7y ago
    That is an interesting connection I will have to keep in mind. I don't think that would be an issue for the first link at least, which only looked at additional cancer deaths in the US and OECD due to the recession.
- DrNuke 7y ago
  Economic impact at this early stage of the pandemic is pretty non-existent though? Italy is just having a very few people not paying for basic food at supermarkets in the Southern part of the country right now... that is where jobs are underpaid, hidden in the black market or just semi- daily- tricks to survive more or less legally, and the first to evaporate when there are no people in the street to fool. So the second stage of a pandemic is social discontent and revolts if people can’t eat... but we are not there yet? That’s why I really think all statistically surplus deaths right now all over the globe are just Covid deaths, but you will not have the exact number... only undertaker businesses may have a proper idea, maybe, if not just the Army in non-democratic countries.
  - s1artibartfast 7y ago
    I'm not sure if you looked at the papers I linked, but the deaths are not from starvation or violence. Examples would be much more mundane, like a skipped doctors visit which could have detected an early cancer.
    - DrNuke 7y ago
      You are right indeed, but Italian local press under the https://www.today.it/ https://www.today.it/ local reporters umbrella (on top left, just click citynews for all the cities covered) is reporting some difficulties right now, not collateral deaths... aka the health system still works, apart of ICUs and ventilators... we are being subjected to a strong, patriotic rhetoric against Covid over here, but the only regional health system gone tits up is Lombardy right now... and even there, normal service for the chronically ill still goes on as usual, with some delay.
      - Recursing 7y ago
        And deaths from covid in Lombardy are already in the tens of thousands, so it's not like a few collateral deaths are going to make a statistically significant difference

by DrNuke 7y ago

learnstats2 7y ago

Deaths are hardest to hide, so I'd always go with that over the other options - but Intensive Care beds seem to be the most critical stat now.

azepoi 7y ago
They are harder to hide but will only be known later. Some countries report only hospital death for now. But many die at home and in retirement communities. But it can track growth if the data stay consistent.

s1artibartfast 7y ago

I'm not sure if we will be able to separate the confounding factors such as economic impact at the population level. Do you have an idea how this can be done? I have seen a few studies using this method to look at excess mortality during the great recession [1],[2], but there wasn't a pandemic at the same time. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)00577-8/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3070776/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3070776/

paganel 7y ago
> but there wasn't a pandemic at the same time. There certainly was a pandemic, the 2009 H1N1 one. [1] In the last few months I've started to suspect that that was what killed my grandma in July 2010, she died very suddenly because of some respiratory issues (I live in Eastern Europe). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
- s1artibartfast 7y ago
  That is an interesting connection I will have to keep in mind. I don't think that would be an issue for the first link at least, which only looked at additional cancer deaths in the US and OECD due to the recession.
DrNuke 7y ago
Economic impact at this early stage of the pandemic is pretty non-existent though? Italy is just having a very few people not paying for basic food at supermarkets in the Southern part of the country right now... that is where jobs are underpaid, hidden in the black market or just semi- daily- tricks to survive more or less legally, and the first to evaporate when there are no people in the street to fool. So the second stage of a pandemic is social discontent and revolts if people can’t eat... but we are not there yet? That’s why I really think all statistically surplus deaths right now all over the globe are just Covid deaths, but you will not have the exact number... only undertaker businesses may have a proper idea, maybe, if not just the Army in non-democratic countries.
- s1artibartfast 7y ago
  I'm not sure if you looked at the papers I linked, but the deaths are not from starvation or violence. Examples would be much more mundane, like a skipped doctors visit which could have detected an early cancer.
  - DrNuke 7y ago
    You are right indeed, but Italian local press under the https://www.today.it/ https://www.today.it/ local reporters umbrella (on top left, just click citynews for all the cities covered) is reporting some difficulties right now, not collateral deaths... aka the health system still works, apart of ICUs and ventilators... we are being subjected to a strong, patriotic rhetoric against Covid over here, but the only regional health system gone tits up is Lombardy right now... and even there, normal service for the chronically ill still goes on as usual, with some delay.
    - Recursing 7y ago
      And deaths from covid in Lombardy are already in the tens of thousands, so it's not like a few collateral deaths are going to make a statistically significant difference